As former President Trump’s polling numbers increase, the Democrats are going full panic mode and again start targeting the Electoral College American voting system which they already have a massive advantage.
According to election analyst Nate Silver, new models show a 65.7% chance that former President Trump wins over President Biden. Silver is a statistician specializing in elections and on Wednesday announced that “the presidential election isn’t a toss-up” on a blog post.
Silver even admitted his political bias in a statement,“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden).”
“Silver’s current prediction, based on 40,000 simulations run through the model, predicts that Biden, 81, is likely to edge out Trump, 78, in the national popular vote by one-tenth of a percentage point (47.2% to 47.1%),” reported the New York Post.“However, in the all-important Electoral College, Silver’s model has Trump receiving 287 electoral votes — just above the 270 needed to win the White House.”
“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver posted. “[I]f Biden loses Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.”
“In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54[%] of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32[%] of simulations. This is the sort of precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t,” Silver explained.
Democrats predictably didn’t like this news and began to play the blame game.