How do you beat Lovely Warren?
As she runs for a third term, under indictment and at odds with Black Lives Matter demonstrators sometimes encamped outside City Hall, how do you beat her?
She’s got money, she’s got incumbency, she’s got a worshipful following on Facebook. She’s the right color and she’s the right gender and, as the last vestige of the David Gantt political machine, she’s backed into a corner and ready to fight.
On one hand, she seems like a pushover. A deeply wounded politician who is about to be blown to smithereens in a live webcast of the deposition of the former police chief who is going to say that she lied to the public about the death of Daniel Prude. She’s facing a felony charge having to do with squirrely campaign money. Her political organization has lost every fight it’s been in for the last two years.
But on the other hand, in Rochester politics, one plus one does not equal two. The players are incredibly vicious, and the voters are very much driven by racial affinity. The rules of the real world don’t apply. And the very weaknesses that would doom Lovely Warren elsewhere, may prove to be strengths here.
So, if she can be beaten, how do you do it?
With a competent, trusted Latina.
Or, the longer shot, with a competent, trusted black man.
And either way, by the end of the committee process, all the non-Lovely candidates have to coalesce behind one challenger who will face her in June’s Democratic primary. All the support, all the money, all the campaigning has to be focused on one candidate
Because one candidate has a chance of beating her in the primary. If there are two or more candidates, even if they are the joke candidates who tend to clutter up Rochester elections, that splinters opposition votes and will help the mayor stay in office.
Why a Latina?
Race is probably the dominant theme in Rochester politics, and candidates and office holders often play it up as they campaign and relate with constituents. When Malik Evans announced his candidacy, the mayor decried it as sexism and tied it to slavery. More than one current office holder whispers to constituents that they can’t trust white people.
That’s just the way it is. Affinity politics is as old as America, and as good a reason for deciding how to vote as any other.
So math becomes important. Rochester is basically 40% black, 40% white and 20% Latino. It is also, as an overwhelmingly Democrat city in the era of identity politics, going to have a bias in favor of a female candidate.
Being a woman of color is a great strength for Lovely Warren.
But a Hispanic woman would have a numerical advantage. She would have the Latino vote, and she would also have the white vote – as many city whites have felt disaffected by the Warren Administration – and 20 plus 40 beats 40.
Would it be a slam dunk? By no means. It would be a long shot, but it’s the best long shot.
But what about a black man? In addition to Malik Evans, there is also Adrian Hale, seemingly being groomed for big things by former lieutenant governor Bob Duffy. And what about La’Ron Singletary, the retired and fired police chief who has resolutely not ruled out a run?
These are each talented men, and Singletary and Evans have long public records.
And maybe if you added them all together – pooled their public support – you’d have enough to beat Lovely Warren. But that would require the three of them to select one of them and to be all in on supporting him.
But that candidate, even with unified support, would still be a man trying to take down “a strong, black woman,” and that’s going to be a very hard sell to the progressive voters in the city of Rochester in 2021.
Which gets back to the question: How do you beat Lovely Warren?
The answer is: Probably you don’t.
She’s lied to City Council. She’s lied to the constituents. She’s facing a felony trial. She’s at war with the local congressman and his all-powerful machine. Her city is in the throes of collapse. Her surrogates have lost battles for elections commissioner, Assembly and party chair.
But she’s probably good.
Mayor for life.
Because this is Rochester, and one plus one does not equal two.