I THINK THE BILLS ARE GOING TO DO IT...
THE BIG DRAFT SPLASH – SAM DARNOLD NO. 1 OVERALL
28 days and counting. The first round of the 2018 NFL college draft will be Thursday, April 26.
I believe the Buffalo Bills are going to kick things off with a huge trade with Cleveland for the No. 1 overall pick. And I believe quarterback Sam Darnold or Josh Allen will be the man.
Bills coach Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane have worked too hard and pulled too many strings accumulating draft assets to turn timid now.
The Bills have craved a true “franchise quarterback” since Jim Kelly retired and I believe McDermott and Beane are ready to make the bold move: the No. 11 and No. 22 overall picks this year plus the first-round pick in 2019 for this year’s No. 1 overall.
Sure, that’s a lot to give up. But if the Bills were to land the QB they have in mind, they wouldn’t need to worry about the most important position on the field for a decade.
Why would Cleveland make the trade? The Browns are not on the verge of making the playoffs, let alone a Super Bowl. They need upgrades all over the field. The picks acquired from Buffalo could become three instant starting players.
Tyrod Taylor will be a more than adequate “bridge quarterback” for Cleveland this season. The Browns could use their two probable very early first-round picks in the 2019 draft to pick the best QB in the class.
Of course, Cleveland could select a QB with the No. 4 overall pick this season, but running back Saqoun Barkley probably would be the less risky pick. The Browns are loaded at the other offensive skill positions.
Why would Buffalo make the trade? The New York Jets outfoxed the Bills by trading up to No. 3 overall. McDermott and Beane probably wouldn’t mind paying back the Jets big-time.
McDermott and Beane also probably know better than the hopeful fan base that the Bills are not likely to make the playoffs this season. The coach and GM appreciate the effort from the players last year, but they’ve pretty much admitted that ending the playoff drought at 17 years was sort of a fluke. Buffalo is a 66-to-1 long shot to win Super Bowl 33 for a reason (with Arizona, Washington and the Browns).
The Bills can land their long-awaited “franchise quarterback” and begin building a legitimate playoff team around him. Darnold or Allen or Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield or whichever other hot-shot QB the Bills might select could sit and learn this season behind AJ McCarron.
So I’ve changed my mind. I thought the Bills would be better off filling several holes in this year’s draft. But McDermott and Beane might feel that Darnold – or maybe another QB in this class – could be too good to pass up.
That’s my strong hunch and I’m sticking to it.
MATT DAVIDSON JOINS EXCLUSIVE OPENING DAY 3-HR CLUB
Matt Davidson of the Chicago White Sox on Thursday became only the fourth player in Major League Baseball history to hit three home runs on Opening Day.
The others were George Bell (Toronto Blue Jays) in 1988, Tuffy Rhodes (Chicago Cubs) in 1994 and Dimitri Young (Detroit Tigers) in 2005.
Red Wings fans might remember Matt Davidson as a slugger/whiffer for the Charlotte Knights in 2014 (20 HRs, 164 strikeouts, .199 batting average), 2015 (23 HRs, 191 strikeouts, .203 batting average) and 2016 (10 HRs in 75 games).
Last season with the White Sox he batted .220 with 26 HRs and 165 strikeouts in 118 games.
Bell in 1988 was the most likely 3-HR Opening Day man. In 1987, he was the American League Most Valuable Player (.308, 47 HRs, American League most 134 RBI and 369 total bases). Despite the terrific Opening Day, he finished 1988 hitting “only” .269 with 24 HRs and 97 RBI.
Rhodes was the least likely 3-HR Opening Day man. 1994 was his only season as a semi-regular in the majors: .234, 8 HRs, 19 RBI in 95 games. His career MLB line: 226 games; .224 batting average; 132 hits; 123 HRs; 44 RBI.
Tuffy went on to become a slugging hero in Japan, smashing 464 HRs in 13 seasons. In 2001, he hit 55 HRs to tie the legendary Sadaharu Oh’s single-season Japanese record. Opponents walked him intentionally in the final games of the season so he could not break Oh’s record.
Dimitri Young, the other 3-HR Opening Day man, had a solid 13-season big-league career: .292 batting average; 1,389 hits; 171 HRs; 683 RBI. His best season was with Cincinnati in 2000: .303, 18 HRs, 88 RBI.
NOT AS MANY LEGIT CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS IN BASEBALL THIS SEASON?
There is a theory floating around that an inordinate number of Major League Baseball teams are tanking this season. The weaker teams know they can’t compete with the monsters for even division crowns and are content to trim the player payroll and hope to wind up with “can’t-miss” future stars via the June entry draft.
The 538 computer this week posted the probabilities for the 2018 season, including won-loss records, run differentials and probabilities to win their divisions and the World Series.
Only 11 of the 30 MLB teams are projected to post winning records this season and only seven teams combine for a 75 percent chance to win the 2018 World Series.
Here are the 11 teams with projected winning records:
Cleveland – 99-63 record...+174 run differential...79% win division...14% win World Series
Houston – 97-65...+151...+66 percent...14 percent
Dodgers – 97-66...+145...63 percent...13 percent
Yankees – 95-67...+125...48 percent...10 percent
Cubs – 95-67...+127...55 percent...10 percent
Washington – 93-69...+111...62 percent...8 percent
Red Sox – 91-71...+89...33 percent...6 percent
Arizona – 85-77...+38...19 percent...3 percent
St. Louis – 86-76...+43...22 percent...3 percent
Milwaukee – 83-79...+15...14 percent...2 percent
Minnesota – 83-79...+20...15 percent...2 percent.
RUSTY STAUB: R.I.P.
Rusty Staub died Thursday. He was 73.
In portions of 23 Major League Baseball seasons with five teams, he was a popular player at every stop and batted .279, with 2,716 hits, 292 HRs and 1,255 RBI.
Some neat Rusty factoids:
He is the only MLB player to have at least 500 hits with four different teams (Houston, Montreal, Mets and Detroit).
He is one of only four MLB to hit home runs before age 20 and after age 40 (with Ty Cobb, Gary Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez).
He played only four seasons in Montreal but learned to speak French to interact with the fans. They loved him for him and called him “Le Grand Orange”. His No. 10 was the first jersey retired by the team. He was elected to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.
In 11 career post-season games, he batted .413 (14-for-41) with 4 HRs and 11 RBI.
He founded the New York Police and Fire Widows’ and Childrens’ Benefit Fund and raised money for families of first responders killed in the line of duty.
He often helped serve meals to homeless citizens in New York City.
He was a very good left-handed hitter for a long time. He was not great defensively in the outfield or at first base and wasn’t swift afoot. He was on the Hall of Fame ballot seven times. He peaked at 7.9 percent and dropped off the ballot at 3.8 percent in 1997.
There are less deserving players in the Hall of Fame.
SYRACUSE BASKETBALL: ECSTASY TO AGONY?
Wasn’t it only a week ago that Syracuse U. basketball fans were dreaming of a deep and super-talented roster for a much-anticipated 2018-19 season?
Ooops. Super recruit Darius Bazley shockingly decided to pass on SU in favor of joining the NBA G-League, Matthew Moyer decided to transfer and now coach Jim Boeheim and Co. are sweating out the possibility of Tyus Battle and/or Oshae Brissett declaring for the 2018 NBA draft.
This is not good.
HOW THE NCAA MEN’S FINAL FOUR TEAMS MEASURE UP
Here’s how the Final Four teams compare entering Saturday’s NCAA men’s semifinals in San Antonio (ranking among the 351 Division I teams in parentheses):
Records – Villanova 34-4...Loyola-Chicago 32-5...Michigan 32-7...Kansas 31-7
Scoring – Villanova 86.6 (1)...Kansas 81.4 (29)...Michigan 74.1 (166)...Loyola 72.0 (t223)
Scoring defense – Loyola 62.4 (5)...Michigan 63.1 (8)...Villanova 70.2 (113)...Kansas 71.2 (140)
Scoring DIFF/game – Villanova +16.4 (2)...Michigan +11.0 (17)...Kansas +10.2 (23)...Loyola +9.6 (27)
Field-goal % -- Loyola 50.9 (3)...Villanova 49.9 (6)...Kansas 49.3 (12)...Michigan (47.0 (56)
3-point FG % -- Kansas 40.3 (11)...Villanova 40.0 (15)...Loyola 40.0 (t16)...Michigan 36.6 (95)
Free-throw % -- Villanova 78.9 (8)...Loyola 72.2 (141)...Kansas 70.5 (215)...Michigan 66.2 (321)
Rebounds/game –Villanova 35.95 (137)...Kansas 35.66 (162)...Michigan 33.38 (281)...Loyola 32.14 (326).
LADY HUSKIES LIKELY TO AVOID A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR’S SHOCKING LOSS
The main reason coach Geno Auriemma’s Connecticut women’s basketball Huskies figure to crush Notre Dame Friday night in the NCAA semifinals and Louisville or Mississippi State in the championship game Sunday is that UConn is on a mission after their 111-game winning streak was ended by South Carolina on a buzzer-beater in last year’s NCAA semifinals.
UConn is merely 39-0 this season, including two victories over South Carolina (83-58 and 94-65) and an 80-71 win over Notre Dame. Mississippi State is 36-1, mainly because it didn’t play the Lady Huskies in the regular season. Mississippi State’s only loss was 62-51 to South Carolina.
After Sunday night’s championship game, UConn figures to have a 151-1 record for its last 152 games. Not too shabby.
THE RED WINGS LOOK LIKE A CINCH FOR SIXTH STRAIGHT WINNING SEASON
The Rochester Red Wings are the only team in the 14-team International League to have posted winning records in each of the past five seasons:
2013 – 77-67
2014 – 77-67
2015 – 77-67
2016 – 81-63
2017 – 80-62.
The North Division figures to be loaded again this season but the pitching depth in Minnesota’s organization is the best reason to project a sixth straight winning record for the Red Wings. The starting rotation looks sold and the bullpen might be even better.
SHORT SHOTS
It didn’t take long for the New York City tabloids to come up with a nickname for new Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton – and it’s a good one. In honor of Babe Ruth and Stanton’s two home runs on Opening Day, he has been tagged GIANBINO.
Strange things are going on with the Kansas City Tornados of the North American Premier Basketball league. Recent home games have been “postponed” for “travel conflicts”, including two crucial games this week against the Rochester RazorSharks. The Tornados social media site has been down and tickets were distributed without dates. Running a coast-to-coast minor-league pro league is not easy.
Lance Zierlein, the NFL Media draft analyst, in his Mock Draft 3.0 has the Bills trading the No. 12 and No. 22 overall picks this year to Denver for the No. 5 overall pick in order to select QB Josh Allen. That would blow up my Sam Darnold-No. 1-to Buffalo theory.
The Rochester Americans played another overtime game Wednesday night at home in a 3-2 loss to the Utica Comets. No surprise. The Amerks have played 68 games this season and a remarkable 27 were decided after regulation. The players don’t get overtime pay and maybe that’s appropriate. The Amerks are 7-11 record in overtime and 3-6 in shootouts. They’ve earned 37 out of 54 possible points in the extra sessions.
The $10 million Dubai World Cup will be Saturday, with $30 million in purse money for the day. The horse to beat is New York-based West Coast, winner of the Travers Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby last year, and ridden by Javier Castellano. Mike Smith will be aboard the impressive mare Forever Unbridled.
Former jockey Ronnie Franklin died this week at age 58 of lung cancer. He was best known for riding the great Spectacular Bid to victories in the 1979 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. They then finished third in the Belmont Stakes after the colt stepped on a safety pin that morning.
ON THIS DATE IN SPORTS...
March 30...28 Years ago (1990), Jack Nicklaus made his debut on the PGA Seniors Tour...20 years ago (1998), Kentucky beat Utah 78-69 for the NCAA men’s basketball championship.
March 31...95 years ago (1923), Alma Cummings danced 27 hours to9 win the first dance marathon in New York City...45 years ago (1973), Ken Norton defeated Muhammad Ali in a 12-round split decision...43 years ago (1975), UCLA beat Kentucky 92-55 in the 37th NCAA men’s championship game. It was UCLA coach John Wooden’s 10th and final NCAA title.
April 1 – 48 years ago (1970), Bud Selig of the Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Club purchased the Seattle Pilots for $10,800,000...46 years ago (1972), Major League Baseball players staged their first collective strike...35 years ago (1983), Mike Bossy of the New York Islanders became the first NHL player to score 60 goals in three straight seasons.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Friday, March 30
Alex Bregman (24)...Roosevelt Nix (26)...Jake Marisnick (27)...Chris Sale (29)...Richard Sherman (30)...Nathan Paetsch (35)...Brendan Stai (46)...Dave Ellett (54)...Lomas Brown (55)...Doug Wickenheiser (57)...Jerry Lucas (78). Celine Dion (50) and Eric Clapton (73) are invited to the birthday party.
Saturday, March 31
Peter Bourjos (31)...Pavel Bure (47)...Steve Smith (49)...Tom Barrasso (53)...John Taylor (56)...Dennis DuVal (66)...Gilles Gilbert (69). Al Gore (70) and Shirley Jones (84) are invited to the birthday party...Heavyweight boxing champion Jack Johnson was born on this date 140 years ago (1878) and died in 1946 at age 68. Gordie Howe was born on this date 90 years ago (1928) and died in 2016 at age 88.
Sunday, April 1
Justin Hamilton (28)...Brook and Robin Lopez (30)...Daniel Murphy (33)...Randy Orton (38)...Etan Thomas (40)...Mark Jackson (53)...Jumbo Elliott (53)...Scott Stevens (54)...Jim Jeffcoat (58)...Reijo Ruotsalainen (58)...John Wensink (65)...Rusty Staub (74)...Phil Niekro (79).