The next representative of the 25th District of New York will probably be determined in a Democratic primary between Assemblyman Joe Morelle and Deputy Mayor Cedric Alexander.
With the passing of Louise Slaughter, and the immediate press of petition deadlines, quiet but intense speculation over the weekend among members of both parties has centered on who’s in and who’s out.
The list of potential candidates is long and impressive.
Mrs. Slaughter did not have an heir apparent, there is no successor in the wings. There are, however, in both parties, a variety of people who could be viable candidates and capable members of Congress. Which of them may or may not seek the office will be determined by factors in their lives and the political landscape.
On the Democratic side, Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren would be a natural candidate. She would carry the city and garner some Democrat votes in the county and have a good chance of winning. Were she to succeed, the story of her assent – from 19th Ward to the halls of Congress – would be an inspiring one.
But she probably doesn’t want it.
As mayor she has direct executive power, a large patronage pool, and a little girl at home.
For Lovely Warren, going to Congress isn’t necessarily a step up, and would come at a high personal cost.
Another likely Democrat winner would be County Clerk Adam Bello. Extremely popular across party lines, all he would have to do to win is get on the ballot.
But he is also a father of young children, and is loath to become a part-time dad.
Further, Adam Bello is expected to run for county executive and secure for his party the patronage that goes along with that important office.
Former police chief, mayor and lieutenant governor Bob Duffy would be a natural candidate, and Congress would be a great end to his success story. But he is not interested. Bob Duffy is an alpha male and an executive leader, and legislative office of any type is not his cup of tea.
Other potential Democratic candidates include Brighton Supervisor Bill Moehle, Irondequoit Supervisor Dave Seeley, state official Vincent Esposito, former reporter Rachel Barnhart, City Councilmember Elaine Spaull, former Brighton Supervisor Sandra Frankel, Assemblyman Harry Bronson and various members of the City Council and County Legislature.
But the big dogs are Joe Morelle and Cedric Alexander.
Morelle has an extensive political organization, and many friends and allies he could call to his aid. His background as a longtime successful state legislator would probably prepare him well for the House. It is likely he will run and it is likely he will win.
But Morelle’s is not the only organization, and Morelle is not the only aspirant. Cedric Alexander would have the support of Lovely Warren’s political organization, and he absolutely has the ambition and stature for national office. A high-profile law-enforcement expert already, and a former federal administrator, Alexander could comfortably swim in the waters of Washington and bring a very useful expertise.
The Democrat pairing will almost certainly be Morelle versus Alexander – unless Morelle unexpectedly bows out. If he does, the Democratic National Campaign Committee will come calling for Adam Bello. And if not Bello, Seeley or Esposito.
Another factor for both parties is the deadline for passing and submitting petitions for candidacy. That began two weeks ago and ends fairly soon. To be a candidate, a campaign must gather 1,250 petitions by April 12. Petition passing for Louise Slaughter was already well underway. Surprising to some, organizers sent out a message Friday withdrawing the petitions and asking people to turn them back in. Had the petitions been passed to completion under Mrs. Slaughter’s name, a committee on replacements would have substituted someone for her.
Another candidate whose petitions are already well filled is Republican newcomer Jim Maxwell. An unknown who secured the blessing of national party leaders by shuttling back and forth to Washington for two years and promising to spend $500,000 of his own money, Maxwell goes from being the latest sacrificial lamb to a candidate for an open seat.
Though his campaign is being run by an associate of Congressman Chris Collins, the effort has thus far been pretty low key.
As things stand, Maxwell is the Republican candidate. Some whisper that the party wants to dump him in favor of Senator Joe Robach, but party leaders deny that, and Jim Maxwell would have to fail to file his petitions or actively withdraw – neither of which is apt to happen.
County Executive Cheryl Dinolfo – who could win – has been blackballed by Conservative Party thug Tom Cook. Former County Legislature President Anthony Danielle has long wanted to run, but would want to be drafted, and would not want to face the prospect of losing in November. Gates Supervisor Mark Assini – a two-time candidate expecting to run again, but cut off at the knees by the Republican and Conservative chairmen – has been blown to smithereens. He’s got the will, but not the money.
Ironically, the best prepared Republican to actually serve in Congress might be county Chairman Bill Reilich. But he’s not interested. He likes being Greece town supervisor – and recognizes the power and patronage of that – and wants to stay put.
So Jim Maxwell is the Republican, and either Joe Morelle or Cedric Alexander is the Democrat.
The Democrat will have the advantage.
The most passionate Republicans like Trump and guns, and Jim Maxwell has distanced himself from both. That lets the air out of the GOP tires. The Democrats will have the midterm boost and the fact this has been a Democrat district for 30 years.
Maxwell will have a big-money TV campaign short on specifics, hoping to get the middle and left. In Morelle he would face an established progressive leader comfortable with suburban voters. In Alexander he would face a conservative Democrat with law-enforcement background and down-home values.
Morelle and Alexander both have crossover appeal, and Alexander has the ability to energize city Democrats.
Either way, it’s likely the Democrat wins in November.
Which means the next representative of the 25th District of New York will probably be determined in a Democratic primary between Assemblyman Joe Morelle and Deputy Mayor Cedric Alexander.
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 20: Chairman of the House Committee on Rules Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-NY) listens to testimony during a meeting of the committee on Capitol Hill on March 20, 2010, in Washington, DC. The Committee on Rules will determine how the pending health care legislation will advance through the vote in the House of Representatives. (Photo by Joshua Roberts/Getty Images)