BETTING AGAINST BELICHICK/BRADY USUALLY IS HAZARDOUS TO ONE’S WEALTH
BOB’S SUPER BOWL PICK: PATRIOTS 28, EAGLES 20
The wizards of odds in Las Vegas say the New England versus Philadelphia Super Bowl 52 matchup on Sunday in Minnesota would be a pick-em game if Carson Wentz were starting quarterback for the Eagles.
But Wentz, the frontrunner for league MVP at the time, suffered a season-ending knee injury December 10 and journeyman Nick Foles took his place. The oddsmakers adjusted the Super Bowl line and New England now is a 4 1/2-point favorite.
I think the difference between Wentz and Foles is considerably more than 4 1/2 points and that’s the main reason I’m picking the Patriots to win by more than the spot.
It would not be a shock if Foles makes his critics look bad. He had a spectacular 2013 season, with 27 TD passes and only 3 interceptions. After two poor performances to end the regular season, Foles was sharp in NFC playoff wins over Atlanta and New Orleans.
But it usually is betting folly to go against New England coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady.
Brady is 5-2 in Super Bowls and at age 40 has shown no signs of losing it. He still is an amazingly accurate thrower and a peerless leader. He oozes confidence and the Patriots usually respond when the going gets tough.
Brady-to-Rob Gronkowski is one of the NFL’s all-time most dangerous QB-tight end combinations and Gronk is expected to play Sunday after recovering from a concussion.
Philadelphia will miss playing at home, where the defense was particularly effective. The Eagles were 9-1 at Lincoln Financial Field. The only loss was 6-0 to Dallas in the meaningless home finale.
Bob’s Super Bowl LII pick: New England 28, Philadelphia 20.
A few interesting prop bets (courtesy of Bovada):
Will the opening kickoff be a touchback – Yes $135 to win $100...No $100 to win $115
Will the first play from scrimmage be – Run $130 to win $100...Pass EVEN
Will the team scoring first win the game – Yes $165 to win $100...No $100 to win $135
Total sacks – over/under 4 ½
Total number of penalties – over/under 12 ½
Total TDs – over 5 ½ $100 to win $120...under 5 ½ $150 to win $100
Longest TD yardage – over/under 43 ½
Shortest yardage TD – over/under 1 ½
Will the game go into overtime – Yes bet $100 to win $800...no bet $1600 to win $100
Will there be a kickoff TD return – Yes $100 to win $750...No $1500 to win $100
Will Justin Timberlake perform a Prince song at halftime – Yes +110...No -150
Largest lead by either team – over/under 13
MVP favorites – Tom Brady 4-to-5...Nick Foles 13-to-4...Rob Gronkowski 17-to-2
First turnover – fumble 7-to-5...interception 10-to-13...none 7-to-1
Will Tom Brady be league MVP and Super Bowl MVP – Yes -120...No -120
Will the USA win more medals at the Winter Olympics than the total points scored by the winning team in the Super Bowl?
Which will be higher – New England’s points in the Super Bowl or points + assists by Celtics Kyrie Irving Sunday versus Portland?
Will any QB pass for 400-or-more yards? – Yes +$100 to win 300...No $500 to win $100
Will a flea-flicker be attempted? – No $100 to win $400...No $700 to win $100
...and my favorite: Rushes by Jay Ajayi – over/under 13 ½ (really like this over).
SOME FUN SUPER BOWL 52 FACTOIDS
The money line (win straight up) – Patriots $175 to win $100...Eagles $100 to win $155
The Patriots chose to wear their white jerseys. The team in white has won 12 of the last 13 Super Bowls.
Underdogs are 12-4 against the point spread in the last 16 Super Bowls.
Six of the last seven teams scoring first won the Super Bowl.
According to the American Gaming Association, an estimated $4.76 billion will be wagered on Super Bowl 52 – about 97 percent illegally.
My favorite factoid: New England is 5-2 in Super Bowls under Bill Belichick but has not scored a point in the first quarter (outscored 15-0).
LEGAL SPORTS BOOKS IN NEVADA ARE ON A 53-MONTH WINNING STREAK
Many sports fans think they could make a living wagering on sports in the state of Nevada. A few of them might even be doing it. But it is very tough to come out ahead on a consistent basis.
Nevada’s legal sports books won a record $248.7 million on the $4.8 billion wagered in 2017. The numbers were released Wednesday by the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
An all-time $1.7 billion was wagered on football – the NFL + college.
$1.4 billion plus was wagered on basketball – the NBA and college.
$1.1 billion was wagered on Major League Baseball. They play a lot of games.
Approximately $600 million was wagered on horse racing + hockey + boxing, etc.
The legal sports books won $34.5 million in December and have come out ahead 53 consecutive months (since July 2013).
SOME BRIAN GIONTA FACTOIDS
Blue Cross Arena at the War Memorial will he hopping Friday night when hometown hero and UI.S. Olympic hockey team captain Brian Gionta suits up and play for the Rochester Americans versus the Toronto Marlies.
The appearance is Gionta’s final tune-up for the Olympics and figures to be a memorable event in Rochester’s sports history.
Here are a few stats, facts and thoughts on Gionta:
He turned 39 on January 18.
He won an NCAA championship with Boston College in 2001. It was his senior season and he was team captain. In four seasons at BC, he had 123 goals and 109 assists for 232 points in 164 games.
He was the 82nd overall pick in the 1998 NHL entry draft by the New Jersey Devils.
He won a Staley Cup with the Devils in 2003.
He scored 489 goals for New Je4rsey in the 2005-06 season.
He played 7 seasons with New Jersey, 5 with the Montreal Canadiens and 3 with Buffalo.
He was team captain for Montreal (the second American so honored; Chris Chelios was the first). He scored the 2,000th goal in the history of the Canadiens.
He left New Jersey to sign a five-year, $25-million contract with Montreal. He signed a three-year deal with the Sabres worth $4.25 million per season.
Last season with Buffalo, he played in all 82 games and scored 15 goals. The Sabres decided not to retain Gionta, with Jason Pominville taking his roster spot.
Buffalo apparently misses Brian. The Sabres were 35-36-11 in 2015-16 and 33-37-12 last season. They’re a brutal 14-28-9 this season. Only four Buffalo players have 10-or-more goals. Pominville has nine. The Sabres apparently miss Gionta on the ice and in the locker room.
RAZORSHARKS 1-7 AFTER HOME LOSS TO OHIO CARDINALS...AT LeBRON JAMES ARENA NEXT
The Rochester RazorSharks ruled the Premier Basketball League for a long time. Their move this season to the “new and improved” North American Premier League isn’t working out too well. The Sharks are finding out how their old outclassed rivals in the defunct Premier League used to feel.
The RazorSharks lost 100-86 Thursday night to the Ohio Cardinals at Blue Cross Arena at the War Memorial. They’re now 1-7 and the roster has been overhauled. Don’t expect a significant turnaround.
Rochester Saturday visits the Ohio Cardinals, who play at LeBron James Arena. It was the home court for Cleveland Cavaliers superstar LeBron James at St. Vincent/St. Mary High School in Akron. He graduated in 2003 after leading the school to three state championships.
In 2013, James donated $1 million to his high school alma mater for a new gymnasium, including a new basketball court and new locker rooms for the boys and girls. Capacity is 1,831.
SHORTS SHOTS
The 2018 season and home opener for the 2018 Rochester Red Wings is 63 days from Friday (April 6, 6:05 p.m., vs. the Buffalo Bisons).
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Friday, February 2
Jonathan Williams (24)...Fozzy Whitaker (29)...Brad Peacock (30)...Cortland Finnegan (34)...former Amerk Jean-Luc Grand-Pierre (41)..Donald Driver (43)...Todd Bertuzzi (43)...Melvin Mora (46)...Ken Dilger (47)...Scott Erickson (50)...Sean Elliott (50)...Arturs Irbe (51)...Mike Tice (59)...John Tudor (64)...Gary Dornhoefer (75)...former Red Wing and baseball Hall of Famer Red Schoendienst (95). Shakira (41) and Christie Brinkley (64) are invited to the birthday party.
Saturday, February 3
Rougned Odor (24)...James White (26)...Julio Jones (29)...Andre Ellington (29)...Lucasw Duda (32)...Paul Gaustad (36)...Dwayne Rudd (42)...Sean Dawkins (47)...Keith Carney (48)...Terry Bradshaw (49)...Retief Goosen (49)...Robert Pack (49)...Vlade Divac (50)...Marty Janetty (58)...Cris Crissy (59)...John Jefferson (62)...Tiger Williams (64)...Fred Lynn (66)...Walt Patulski (68)...Bob Griese (73)...Carol Mann (77)...Fran Tarkenton (78).
Sunday, February 4
Malik Monk (20)...Carly Patterson (30)...Brad Richardson (33)...Doug Fister (34)...Oscar De La Hoya (45)...Manny Legace (45)...Dan Plesac (56)...Denis Savard (57)...Lawrence Taylor (59).