NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES: PATRIOTS AND VIKINGS ARE BOB’S PICKS
Kicking off with two encouraging factoids for fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles from ace sports handicapper Marc Lawrence: In the 54 NFL conference championship games since 1990, the Las Vegas underdogs won outright 16 times and went on to win 10 Super Bowls.
For Sunday’s two conference title showdowns, The Jaguars are 8-point underdogs at the New England Patriots in the AFC and the Eagles are 3-point underdogs at home against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC.
Bob’s “Best Bet” Sunday: Minnesota 23, PHILADELPHIA (+3) 17 – This matchup features two of the NFL’s elite defenses. I can’t choose between them. I’m banking on the quarterbacks being the difference. I believe the Vikings have the edge with Case Keenum over Nick Foles. Keenum is more mobile, less vulnerable to turnovers and playing with supreme confidence.
Sunday’s other game (home team in CAPS)
NEW ENGLAND (-8) 27, Jacksonville 14 – Tom Brady hasn’t faced many defenses with the overall speed and athleticism of Jacksonville, but Jacksonville hasn’t faced a quarterback as savvy and resourceful as Brady – sore hand or not. I’d give the Jaguars a big chance if they could control the clock with rookie running back Leonard Fournette carrying the ball 25-to-30 times for 125-plays yards and, but Patriots coach Bill Belichick is a master at eliminating an opponent’s major offensive threat. Could Jags quarterback Blake Bortles pick up the slack? Doubtful.
TOM BRADY TOWERS OVER BORTLES-FOLES-KEENUM
New England’s Tom Brady supposedly has a sore throwing hand but we assume he’ll be starting in Sunday’s AFC Championship game.
But did anyone when this NFL season began expect Blake Bortles (Jacksonville) or Nick Foles (Philadelphia) or Case Keenum (Minnesota) to be among the starting QBs on conference championship Sunday?
Brady has a 5-2 record in Super Bowls. Bortles (2), Foles (1) and Keenum (1) have started a total of four post-season games.
Here are the NFL career records for the four QBs (including post-season games):
Brady – 286 games started...222-64 (.776)...127-23 home...95-41 road
Bortles – 63 games started...23-40 (.365)...16-16 home...7-24 road
Foles – 41 games started...23-18 (.561)...14-9 home...9-9 road
Keenum – 39 games started...21-18 (.538)...12-8 home...9-10 road.
Totals for Bortles, Foles and Keenum – 143 games started...67-76 (.468)...42-33 home...25-43 road.
Career 300-yard passing games:
Brady 94, including 11 400+-yard games and one 500-yard game
Bortles (16), Foles (8) and Keenum (5) have a total of 29 300-yard passing games.
Brady’s huge advantage in experience doesn’t guarantee that he’ll soon win his sixth Super Bowl ring. After all, he’s 40 years old – the oldest non-kicker among NFL players– and he has to be losing something off his fastball, right?
Brady’s Patriots might not win Super Bowl LII, but if they do lose, I’ll believe it when I see it.
WISHFUL THINKING FOR PATRIOTS HATERS...
Tom Brady’s hand injury is worse than we’ve been led to believe. It’s a sneaky cover-up.
Patriots owner and Godfather Robert Kraft (he’s really rich so Robert sounds classier than Bob) contacted the region’s greatest hand specialists and asked them to use all of their magic (a la the mortician Marlon Brando asked to make Sonny’s bullet-riddled body look presentable for his mother at his funeral) to heal Tommy before the big game.
But Brady’s injured hand at least hampers his passing performance Sunday to the extent that retread Brian Hoyer (16-22 record with six teams in his nine NFL seasons) has to replace him or maybe even start.
Dream on Patriots haters.
THIS STUDY RANKS THE 2017 BILLS 12TH-BEST DURING THE PLAYOFF DROUGHT
Football fans in western New York will forever fondly recall the 2017 edition of the Buffalo Bills for ending the embarrassingly ridiculous 17-year playoff drought.
Most of those fans will give the 2017 Bills credit for overachieving.
I give GM Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott credit for telling it like it is. The Bills have a long way to go before they become a consistently genuine playoff threat. The team has more holes than a golf course.
I don’t think it is demeaning to say Buffalo’s trip to the wild-card playoffs was more a tribute to hard work and good luck (like playing in the weak AFC) than exceptional overall talent.
FiveThirtyEight’s Ty Schalter this week posted an interesting look at 2017 Bills. He wasn’t being rude or disrespectful. He was being honest based on assorted metrics.
This season’s Bills finished the regular season with a 9-7 record. But according to Football Outsiders Pythagorean wins (based on pure point differential) and estimated wins (emphasizing consistency and performance in high-leverage situations), Buffalo “should have” posted 6.8 and 6.3 wins, respectively.
Schalter also factored in Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, derived from scoring differential and strength of schedule.
Adding it all up, in terms of metrics, the 2017 Bills ranked 12th among Buffalo’s 18 teams since 2000. He wrote, “Outside of running the ball with LeSean McCoy, these Bills didn’t do anything well.”
Buffalo’s best team over the playoff drought in terms of metrics was the 9-7 team in 2004. It started 0-4, then went 9-2 entering the final game. The Bills needed a win to make the postseason but was upset at home by the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were resting some key starters. The metrics said Buffalo had 12.4 estimated wins and 11.1 Pythagorean wins. The defense ranked No. 1 in metrics.
Schalter’s conclusion: “None of this can take away the joy Bills fans everywhere felt when the Ravens’ Week 17 collapse handed their team a wild-card berth, of course. But there’s a reason the Bills organization sent the Cincinnati Bengals thank-yous: This trip to the postseason was much more about being lucky than good.”
Nobody knows that better than Beane and McDermott – and the team’s fans couldn’t care less.
SYRACUSE IS ON THE NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE
ESPN NCAA tournament bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Syracuse among the last four teams to get a bye from the First Four and make the field for the 64-team first round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Sports Illustrated has SU among the last four teams and a participant in the First Four preliminary elimination round.
Sporting News has SU among the first four teams left out of the 68-team field.
The Orange (13-6 record overall; 2-4 in the Atlantic Coast Conference) obviously have need some wins down the stretch to qualify. Here are the remaining 12 games in this regular season – all in the ACC (RPI in parentheses; the Rating Percentage Index is a significant tool used by the selection committee; SU’s current RPI is 36):
Wednesday BOSTON COLLEGE (61)...January 27 at Pittsburgh (146)...January 31 at Georgia Tech (133)...February 3 VIRGINIA (4)...February 5 at Louisville (14)...February 11 WAKE FOREST (118)...February 14 NORTH CAROLINA STATE (70)...February 17 at Miami (22)...February 21 NORTH CAROLINA (3)...February 24 at Duke (1)...February 28 at Boston College (61)...March 3 CLEMSON (6).
RED WINGS-MONROE COUNTY LEASE NEGOTIATIONS GOING BADLY AGAIN
The Frontier Field lease negotiations between Monroe County and Rochester Community Baseball have soured again.
Lawyers versus lawyers. I hope there are baseball fans on both sides of the table.
Don’t panic yet. It is inconceivable that the Red Wings would ever leave Rochester – right?
We couldn’t possibly go from America’s best minor-league pro sports city to the worst – could we?
We’ve lost four pro teams in two years. After something like 140 years, we couldn’t lose our baseball team – could we?
Rochester Community Baseball has around five million dollars of assets, much in the form of stock and dividends. It is insurance for future poor seasons on the field, at the gate and on the stock market. The team is solvent.
Monroe County wants the Red Wings to pay significantly more rent.
What would Frontier Field be without the Red Wings? What would Greater Rochester bed without the Red Wings?
I think it would be Not-So-Greater Rochester and another strong clue that we’re going in the wrong direction.
SHORT SHOTS
The FiveThirtyEight ELO spots computer’s probabilities to win Super Bowl LII: New England 44 percent...Philadelphia 25 percent...Minnesota 25 percent...Jacksonville 6 percent.
A “scheduling conflict” has switched the Rochester RazorSharks (0-6 record) home game against the Kansas City Tornados from Monday night to March 14. I wonder if the Tornados (0-2 record) will be around by then.
Dates to circle on Syracuse University’s 2018 football schedule (released Wednesday): host Florida State Seminoles September 15...at the revenge-seeking Clemson Tigers September 29...host Louisville Cardinals (minus Lamar Jackson) Friday, November 9...versus Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium November 17.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Friday, January 19 – Shawn Johnson (26)...James Beresford (29)...JaVale McGee (30)...Thomas Vanek (34)...Elvis Dumervil (34)...former Amerk Sean McMorrow (36)...Walter Jones (44)...Ian Laperriere (44)...Tyrone Whatley (46)...Phil Nevin (47)...former Red Wings pitcher Rick Krivda (48)...Sylvain Cote (52)...Michael Adams (55)...Chris Sabo (56)...O.J. Anderson (61)...Steve DeBerg (64)...Dan Reeves (74). Dolly Parton (72) is invited to the birthday party.
Saturday, January 20 – Nick Foles (29)...Rey Maualuga (31)...Geovany Soto (35)...David Eckstein (43)...Rae Carruth (44)...Jalen Rose (45)...Brian Giles (47)...Terry Kirby (48)...Nick Anderson (50)...Mark Stepnoski (51)...Chris Morris (52)...Rich Gannon (52)...Ozzie Guillen (54)...Ron Harper (54)...Bill Kenney (63)....Milt Plum (83). Bill Maher (62) and Buzz Aldrin (88) are invited to the birthday party.
Sunday, January 21
Brandon Crawford (31)...Johnathon Quick (32)...Ryan Suter (33)...Haloti Ngata (34)...Dany Heatley (37)...Alan Benes (46)...Doug Weight (47)...Brian Bradley (53)...Dalton Hilliard (54)...Hakeem Olajuwon (55)...Detlef Schrempf (55)...Sidney Lowe (58)...Jacob Green (61)...Jack Nicklaus (78).