STATS DON’T ALWAYS TELL THE STORY: WHY ARE THE PATRIOTS FAVORED BY 9 POINTS?
A basic Tale of the Tape statistical comparison entering Sunday’s Jacksonville at New England AFC Championship Game suggests that the 9-point underdog Jaguars have a big chance to pull off a shocking upset.
Here’s how the two teams measured up in the regular season (rank in the 32-team NFL in parentheses):
Records – Patriots 13-3...Jaguars 10-6
Scoring, points per game – Patriots 28.6 (2nd)...Jaguars 26.1 (5th)
Scoring defense, points allowed per game – Patriots 18.5 (5th)...Jaguars 16.8 (2nd)
Point DIFF per game – Patriots +10.1...Jaguars +9.3
Total offense – Patriots 394.2 (1st)...Jaguars 365.9 (6th)
Total defense – Patriots 366.0 (29th)...Jaguars 286.1 (2nd)
Yards DIFF per game – Patriots +28.2...Jaguars +79.8
Pass offense, yards per game – Patriots 276.1 (2nd)...Jaguars 224.6 (17th)
Rush offense, yards per game – Patriots 118.1 (10th)...Jaguars 141.4 (1st)
Yards per carry – Patriots 4.2 (12th)...Jaguars 4.3 (9th)
Passer rating – Patriots 102.6 (2nd)...Jaguars 84.4 (18th)
Rush defense, fewest YAPG – Patriots 114.8 (20th)...Jaguars 116.3 (21st)
Pass defense, fewest YAPG – Patriots 251.3 (30th)...Jaguars 169.9 (1st)
Opponents passer rating – Patriots 89.5 (17th)...Jaguars 68.5 (1st)
Takeaways/giveaways – Patriots 18/12, +6 (11th)...Jaguars 33/23. +10 (t5th)
First downs – Patriots 389 (1st)...Jaguars 332 (t7th)
Fewest first down allowed – Patriots 325 (t24th)...Jaguars 257 (1st)
First downs DIFF – Patriots +64...Jaguars +75
Penalties – Patriots 95 for 835 yards...Jaguars 112 for 936 yards
Opponents penalties – Patriots 111 for 1,135...Jaguars 112 for 1,050
Sacks for/against/DIFF – Patriots 42/35, +7...Jaguars 55/24, +31.
Worth noting – Jacksonville has the best pass defense Tom Brady has faced this season. The Jaguars had 55 sacks, one behind NFL-leader Pittsburgh. The Jags have a young and extremely athletic secondary. Jacksonville had a league-best 68.5 opposing passer rating and 21 interceptions.
Of course, Jacksonville hasn’t faced a passing attack as potent as Tom Brady’s Patriots.
If Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette has a big afternoon – maybe 25-to-30 carries for 125-or-so yards -- they could keep the ball away from Brady.
The bottom line – Many of the numbers favor Jacksonville, but New England has the advantage in big-game experience, coaching, confidence, knowing how to win, the home field and at quarterback (Brady versus inconsistent Blake Bortles). That’s why the Patriots are favored by 9 points.
ALL GOLDEN STATE NEEDS TO DO IS STAY HEALTHY
The NBA defending champion Golden State Warriors pulled away in the second half to beat the host Cleveland Cavaliers 118-110 Monday night. The slumping Cavs badly wanted to win but it was no contest after three quarters.
The Warriors appear to be the class of the NBA – again. They have two of the league’s top five players in Kevin Durant and Steph Curry (not bad in a 30-team league) and a tried-and-true supporting cast.
Golden State is supremely talented, deep by NBA standards, unselfish (33 assists on 41 made field goals Monday night) and underrated defensively.
The Warriors have the NBA’s best record (36-9) and best road record (20-3). They lead the league in scoring (115.9), point differential per game (+9.1), field-goal percentage (.509; second-best New Orleans is .490), 3-point field-goal percentage (.388) and assists per FG (.576).
If the Warriors are healthy when the NBA playoffs begin in mid-April, what team could beat them in any best-of-seven series, including the Finals?
SENIOR BOWL WILL SHOWCASE MAYFIELD AND ALLEN
The Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, Saturday, January 27 will be of particular interest to fans of the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills are expected to select a quarterback in the 2018 NFL college draft and two of the top five players at the position – Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) and Josh Allen (Wyoming) – have accepted invitations to play in the game.
The two other top-ranked QB prospects – Sam Darnold (USC) and Josh Rosen (UCLA) – won’t be in the Senior Bowl because they left college early.
Another interesting prospect who’ll play in the Senior Bowl will be UCF linebacker Shaquem Griffin, who lost his left hand when he was four years old. He had a congenital birth defect. He is an amazing player and is expected to be drafted.
WHAT ARE THE SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS DOING?
The San Francisco Giants have traded for “The Face of the Pittsburgh Pirates” – outfielder Andrew McCutchen – and “The Face of the Tampa Bay Rays” – third baseman Evan Longoria.
The Giants finished in last place in the National League West last season. Their 64-98 (.395) record was 40 games worse than the division-winning Los Angeles Dodgers. They were a ridiculous 26-55 on the road.
The 2017 Giants ranked 14th in the 15-team NL in batting average (.349) and 15th in home runs (128). Their 4.50 ERA ranked 8th. They were outscored by 137 runs (776-639).
San Francisco won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014. But the Giants have become one of the oldest teams in baseball and won’t be winning another championship anytime soon.
What they will have is a starting lineup loaded with fan-pleasing familiar names – including McCutchen, Longoria, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Joe Panik. But most of them have seen better days. The lineup figures to be more impressive than the team’s record. There isn’t much depth (are you a fan of Pablo Sandoval or Gorkys Hernandez?), speed or power.
The Giants have three solid starting pitchers (Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. The bullpen is highly suspect.
If the 2018 Giants finish above .500 I’ll be surprised.
THE PUZZLING UNPLUGGED POWER PLAY SAGA OF THE BUFFALO SABRES
Nothing sums up the disappointing 2017-18 NHL season thus far for the Buffalo Sabres than the power play:
2016-17 season – Best in the 30-team NHL...24.5 percent; 57-for-233...allowed 4 short-handed goals.
2017-18 season – Worst in the 31-team NHL...12.9 percent; 17-for-132...allowed 8 short-handed goals.
Thirteen players for the Sabres scored power-play goals last season, led by Matt Moulson’s 11 (he’s now playing for the AHL Ontario Reign) and Jack Eichel’s 10...Eight Sabres have scored power-play goals this season, led by Ryan O’Relly’s 6. Eichel has one.
Nothing has changed killing penalties. Buffalo was 25th last season (77.6 percent; 184-for-237) and is 25th this season (.78.4; 105-for-134).
A FEW JUICY NHL FACTOIDS
The expansion Vegas Golden Knights are an NHL-best 18-2-2 at home but a mere 11-9-1 on the road. Calgary is an NHL-best 13-5-4 on the road but a modest 12-11-0 at home.
Nashville leads the NHL in penalty minutes (558) and most penalty minutes against (483). The zebras know they’ll be extra busy in games involving the Predators.
Tampa Bay leads the NHL in goals (161) and goal differential (+49).
The Los Angeles Kings lead the NHL in fewest goals against (107), save percentage (.923) and penalty killing (87.1).
SHORT SHOTS
The FiveThirtyEight ELO spots computer’s probabilities to win Super Bowl LII: New England 44 percent...Philadelphia 25 percent...Minnesota 25 percent...Jacksonville 6 percent.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Wednesday, January 17
Nickell Robey-Coleman (26)...Trevor Bauer (27)...Dwayne Wade (36)...Mike Zigomanis (37)...Marcus Spriggs (44)...Derrick Mason (44)...Derek Plante (47)...Jeremy Roenick (48)...Trish Johnson (52)...Sylvain Turgeon (53)...Chili Davis (58)...Tim Bernhardt (60)...Mike Hegman (65)...Preston Pearson (73)...Denny Doyle (74). Kid Rock (47), Michelle Obama (54), Jim Carrey (56), Steve Harvey (61), Maury Povich (79), James Earl Jones (87) and Betty White (96) are invited to the birthday party...Muhammad Ali was born on this date 76 years ago (1942) and died in 2016 at age 74.
Thursday, January 18
Leonard Fournette (23)...Michael Pineda (28)...Gift Ngoepe (28)...Latavius Murray (28)...Julius Peppers (38)...Brian Gionta (39)...Dwayne Carswell (46)...Larry Webster (49)...Brady Anderson (54)...Mark Messier (57)...Tony McGee (69)...former Red Wings second baseman Mickey McGuire (77). WWE’s Dave Bautista (49) and Kevin Costner (63) are invited to the birthday party.