THE TRUSTY 538 COMPUTER DOESN’T MEASURE HEART AND EFFORT
The 538 sports computer spits out victory probabilities based on raw statistics.
Entering last Sunday’s regular-season ending NFL schedule, the computer gave host Miami a 51 percent chance to beat Buffalo, Baltimore a 77 percent chance to beat visiting Cincinnati, and the Bills a mere 17 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The computer isn’t always right. That’s a big reason why we love sports.
I picked Buffalo to lose to Miami and Baltimore to beat Cincinnati. I’m glad I was wrong.
The 538 computer gives Buffalo a 41 percent probability to win at Jacksonville Sunday, an 8 percent chance to make the AFC title game, a 2 percent chance to reach Super Bowl 53 and less than a 1 percent chance to win Super Bowl 53.
I believe the computer is being generous to the banged-up and offensively-challenged Bills. I figure Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles would need to perform terribly in order for Buffalo to upset the 8-point favored Jaguars.
I hope Bortles has that horrible afternoon (not an impossibility) and the Bills make me look foolish again.
NO SURPRISE -- THE NUMBERS FAVOR THE JAGUARS
Here’s how the Jaguars and Bills compare in significant categories entering Sunday’s game (ranking among the 12 playoff teams in parentheses):
Records – Jaguars 10-6...Bills 9-7
Points per game – Jaguars 26.1 (4)...Bills 18.9 (12)
Fewest points allowed per game – Jaguars (2)...Bills 22.2 (12)
Point differential per game – Jaguars +9.3 (t2)...Bills -3.5 (12)
Total offense – Jaguars 365.9 (4)...Bills 302.6 (12)
Total defense – Jaguars 286.1 (2)...Bills 355.1 (10)
Yards differential per game – Jaguars +79.8 (2)...Bills -52.5 (12)
Pass offense (yards/game) – Jaguars 224.6 (9)...Bills 176.6 (12)
Rush offense (yards per game) – Jaguars 141.4 (1)...Bills 126.1 (5)
Yards per carry – Jaguars 4.3 (5)...Bills 4.1 (8)
Passer rating – Jaguars 84.4 (9)...Bills 82.1 (10)
Rush defense – Jaguars 115.3 (8)...Bills 124.6 (12)
Pass defense – Jaguars 169.9 (1)...Bills 230.5 (9
Opposing passer rating – Jaguars 68.5 (1)...Bills 78.9 (4)
First downs – Jaguars 332 (t5)...Bills 278 (12)
Fewest penalties --Jaguars 112 (10)...Bills 98 (1)
Fewest yards penalized – Jaguars 936 (9)...Bills 872 (5)
Sacks by – Jaguars 55 (2)...Bills 27 (12)
Fewest sacks allowed – Jaguars 24 (t2)...Bills 47 (12)
Turnover differential – Jaguars +10 (t5); 33T-23G...Bills +9 (7); 25T-16G.
Jacksonville was 6-2 at home this regular season and Buffalo is 3-5 on the road.
The bottom line: Jacksonville has by far the best of the comparative statistics. But the computer can’t measure heart or overconfidence. We know the Bills have heart and overall have overachieved to get this far. It would be asking a lot of the Jaguars to not be overconfident.
THE ZEBRAS DIDN’T HURT THE BILLS TOO BADLY THIS SEASON
First-year Buffalo Bills coach stressed discipline this season and it worked – at least in terms of yellow flags.
The Bills were penalized 98 times (10th-fewest in the NFL) for 872 yards (also 10-fewest in the NFL).
Opponents were flagged 97 times (fourth-fewest in the NFL) for 873 yards (10-fewest).
ARE BONDS AND CLEMENS ON THE VERGE OF BEING ELECTED?
Is this the year baseball’s only seven-time Most Valuable Player (Barry Bonds) and only seven-time Cy Young award winner (Roger Clemens) will be elected to the Hall of Fame?
Probably not, but it looks like they’re getting close.
Is the stigma of being associated with performance-enhancing drugs wearing off?
The newest Hall of Famers will be announced January 24.
Ryan Thibodaux is the foremost baseball Hall of Fame voter tracker. His latest count was 156 of the approximately 424 voters (36.8 percent).
A player must appear on 75 percent of the ballots to be elected.
Here are Thibodaux’s numbers so far (year of eligibility in parentheses):
1-Chipper Jones (1) 98.7 percent
2-Jim Thome (1) 94.9%
3-Vladimir Guerrero (2) 93.6%
4-Edgar Martinez (9) 80.8%
5-Trevor Hoffman (3) 78.2%
6-Mike Mussina (6) 73.1
t7-Barry Bonds (6) 79.0 and Roger Clemens(6) 72.2 % (each on 109 of 156 ballots)
9-Curt Schilling (6) 69.9%
10-Larry Walker (8) 41.0%
11-Manny Ramirez (2) 27.6%
12-Omar Vizquel (1) 26.9%
13-Fred McGriff (9) 16.7%
14-Sammy Sosa (6) 14.1%
15-Billy Wagner (3) 10.9%
16-Scott Rolen (1) 10.3
t17-Jeff Kent (5) 9.6% and Gary Sheffield (4) 9.6%
19-Andruw Jones (1) 5.1%
20-Johan Santana (1) 1/95
21-Johnny Damon 0.6% (one vote).
This was the sixth year on the ballot for Bonds and Clemens. They’ve gradually gained support from the BBWAA voters, partly because some of the old guard have been weeded out and partly because some other voters believe Bonds and Clemens have been punished enough.
Here’s how the dynamic duo has fared at the Hall of Fame ballot box:
2013 – Clemens 37.6 percent...Bonds 36.2
2014 – Clemens 35.4...Bonds 34.7
2015 – Clemens 37.5...Bonds 36.8
2016 – Clemens 45.2...Bonds 44.3
2017 – Clemens 54.1...Bonds 53.8.
Thibodaux’s current tracking numbers suggest that Bonds and Clemens will make further progress this time around but probably still will need to wait a year or two or three...or maybe forever...to be elected.
SYRACUSE’S SIZE AND ZONE WERE TOO MUCH FOR THE HOKIES
This is Jim Boeheim’s 42nd season as head basketball coach at Syracuse U. and he never has had a losing season. This isn’t one his best teams but it appears to be more than good enough to extend that impressive streak.
Virginia Tech rolled into the Carrier Dome Sunday afternoon with an 11-2 record and as the best-shooting team among the 351 Division I teams. The Hokies were leading the nation in field-goal percentage (54.5), fourth in three-point FG percentage (43.7) and sixth in scoring (91.3).
SU’s tall bodies, long arms, 2-3 zone and patient tempo, totally frustrated the smaller Hokies, who had a .345 field-goal percentage (18-of-52) and were held to 35 points below their average in a not-as-close-as-it-looks 68-56 defeat.
The Orange don’t shoot consistently well and lack depth, but they have three very good players (Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and freshman star Oshae Brissett) and figure to win their share of games in a very tough conference. They might even earn an upset or two against the ACC’s powerhouse teams.
The updated NCAA stats reflect SU’s obvious deficiencies but also show what SU does well (rank among the 351 Division I teams in parentheses):
Solid defense – Rebound margin +10.6 per game (5th)...41.86 rebounds per game (11th)...field-goal defense 38.2 percent (17th)...scoring defense 62.2 points per game (18th)...120 steals (t27th)...+9.5 scoring margin (t84th).
Not-so-solid offense – 30.2 three-point FG percentage (327th)...43.1 field-goal percentage (247th)...71.7 points per game (245th) and 70.2 free-throw percentage (192nd).
SU plays at Wake Forest Wednesday (pre-game show 6 p.m., and tip-off time 7 p.m., on News Radio WHAM 1180). The Orange host Notre Dame Saturday, 3 p.m.
BUFFALO’S TOP SPORTS STORIES OF 2017
What were Buffalo’s top 10 sports stories of 2017? Tim Graham of The Buffalo News revealed his list last Thursday. Not a big shock, but many of his picks were on the negative side, and the pro teams got much of the attention:
1-Regulas overhaul Bills and Sabres.
2-Playoff droughts of the Bills (17-year drought ended Sunday in Miami) and the Sabres (closing in on seven years)
3-Bills roster purge.
4-Sabres star Jack Eichel’s $80 million contract extension through the 2025-26 NHL season.
5-Tyrod Taylor benched in favor of rookie Nathan Peterman (five interceptions in the first half of a costly lopsided loss at the Los Angeles Chargers.
6-Sabres forward Kyle Okposo’s “health mystery” (it was concussion related).
7-Big events in Buffalo (including second-round NCAA March Madness, UFC 210 and the World Juniors hockey tournament).
8-UB dropped four sports (including baseball, men’s soccer and men’s swimming).
9-Dominick Welch became the Buffalo area’s all-time high school basketball scorer.
10-The Buffalo Beuts won the National Women’s Hockey League championship.
Graham also noted the losing seasons by the baseball Bisons and the indoor lacrosse Bandits.
Let’s talk about Rochester’s top 10 sports stories Thursday night on my WHAM 1180 radio show, 6 to 8 p.m.
NFL 2017 REGULAR SEASON STAT PACK
The NFC dominated the AFC 41-23 in this season’s interconference series.
Home teams were 145-111 outright and 128-118-10 against the Las Vegas point spread (ATS).
Las Vegas favorites were 175-81 outright and 131-114-11 ATS.
Teams scoring first were 184-72.
Teams leading at halftime were 190-41.
Teams leading after three quarters were 211-30.
Teams winning the turnover battle were 155-40.
Teams entering the game with the better record were 130-65.
Teams with the most rushing yards were 178-75.
Teams with the most passi9ng yards are 152-101.
Teams leading in timer of possession were 185-71.
51 of the 256 games were decided by 3 points or less.
97 of the 256 games were decided by 7 points or less.
There were 11 overtime games and 11 shutouts.
THESE AMERKS ARE TRUE ROAD WARRIORS
The 2017-18 Rochester Americans are a vast improvement over last season’s team – particularly on the road.
The Amerks are 20-8-3-3 for the fourth-best point percentage (.676; 46 of 68 possible points in the standings).
Rochester is a modest 8-7-0-1 at home (.531; 17 of 32 possible points) and a spectacular 12-1-3-2 on the road (.806; 29 of 36 possible points). The Amerks have outscored opponents 51-47 (+4) at home and 56-45 (+11) away.
The Amerks return to action Friday against the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Saturday against the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Both games are at Blue Cross Arena at the war Memorial – is that good or bad?
For the record, the 2016-17 Amerks were 32-41-0-3, including 13-25-0-0 on the road (26 of 76 possible points; .342 28th in the 30-team American Hockey League.
SHORT SHOTS
Thumbs down to the Michigan Wolverines for blowing a big lead and losing to South Carolina 26-19 in the Outback Bowl. It cost the Big 10 an 8-0 record in bowl games, Iowa, Iowa State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin all were victorious.
The Rochester RazorSharks lost their first-ever North American Premier League game – 110-92 to the Albany Patroons – on New Year’s Eve at Blue Cross Arena. They drew a decent crowd despite the bad break of the Buffalo Bills game at Miami being switched from 1 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. The Patroons-Sharks tipped off at 6 p.m. The Sharks will play Saturday night at the Albany Patroons and Sunday against the Ohio Cardinals at Blue Cross Arena. Game time has been changed from 2 p.m., to 5 p.m. to accommodate the Bills at Jacksonville wild-card playoff game.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Wednesday, January 3 – DeShone Kizer ((22)...Alex Meyer (28)...Eli Manning (37)...David Tyree (38)...former Red Wing Michael Restovich (39)...A.J. Burnett (41)...Todd Warriner (44)...Michael Schumacher (49)...Calvin Natt (51)...Luis Sojo (53)...Cheryl Miller (54)...Jim Everett (55)...Jacques Cloutier (58)...Jim Ross (66)...Mike Walton (78)...Rick MacLeisch (78)...Bobby Hull (79). Mel Gibson (62) is invited to the birthday party.
Thursday, January 4 – Seth Griffith (25)...Kris Bryant (26)...Kevin Pillar (29)...Graham Rahal (29)...Eric Weddle (33)...Al Jefferson (33)...Scott Frost (43)...Ted Lilley (44)...Joe Kleine (56)...Garrison Hearst (47)...Jackie Harris (50)...Don Shula (88).