TOP CHALLENGE FOR THE BILLS: STUFF KENYAN DRAKE
The Buffalo Bills are long shots to earn a berth in the NFL playoffs even if they win Sunday over the host Miami Dolphins.
The Bills are 2 1/2-point favorites against the Dolphins. Why? I suppose partly because Buffalo beat Miami earlier this month at New Era Field, partly because Jay Cutler plays quarterback for the Dolphins and partly because the Dolphins have been eliminated from the hunt for a spot in the playoffs.
But I believe Buffalo is a false favorite and that Miami will win, partly because the Dolphins will be playing at home and will benefit from the revenge factor – and mainly because running back Kenyan Drake figures to have a banner performance against Buffalo’s shabby rush defense.
Buffalo’s defense arguably has had the worst front seven in the NFL during the second half of this season. They can’t consistently stop the run or rush the passer. Thank goodness the solid secondary has picked up some of the slack.
Since Week 8, Buffalo has allowed an NFL-most 154.9 yards rushing per game and 30th-ranked 4.7 yards per rush.
Meanwhile, discarded Bills linebacker Reggie Ragland (Kansas City) and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (Jacksonville) are receiving high marks as run-stoppers from their playoff-bound new teams.
Fortunately for the Dolphins, all Cutler figures to need to do Sunday is stay out of the way (and throw the ball to his team instead of to the Bills).
My pick Miami 24, Buffalo 15.
SUNDAY’S OTHER “BEST BETS” PICKS:
(Home teams in CAPS)
BALTIMORE (-9 ½) 27, Cincinnati 20 – The Ravens aren’t much on offense but they have a playoff-worthy defense. Maybe Bengals QB Andy Dalton can be sharp and do the Bills a big favor.
DETROIT (-6 1/2) 27, Green Bay 10 – The disappointing Lions could take out some of their frustrations against the banged-up Packers.
ATLANTA (-4) 23, CAROLINA 17 – The Falcons are a very tough team to figure but they have more to play for in this game.
New Orleans 30, TAMPA BAY (+7 ) 14 – Drew Brees gets to pad his stats.
Jacksonville 28, TENNESSEE (-3) 24 – I expect the Jaguars to bounce back from last week’s embarrassing road loss to San Francisco. And who knows how many Jags starters will rested and when?
INDIANAPOLIS (-4 1/2) 20, Houston 13 – The Colts are bad. The Texans are worse.
PITTSBURGH (-11) 30, Cleveland 7 – 0-16 looks to be in the bag for the Browns.
Washington 27, NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) 20 – Give the Redskins some credit for battling on despite their long injury list. The season can’t end soon enough for the Giants.
MINNESOTA (-11 1/2) 24, Chicago 7 – Playing at home should be enough incentive for the Vikings.
PHILADELPHIA (+2 ½) 23, Dallas 17 – I’m no fan of Nick Foles but I’m taking Philadelphia’s defense, home fans and the 2 ½-point spot.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (7 ½) 28, Oakland 15 – The Chargers have the momentum and more to play for.
SEATTLE (-9) 20, Arizona 15 – The Seahawks are tough at home and have Russell Wilson but the spot appears overly generous.
DENVER (-3 ½) 21, Kansas City 14 – The Broncos can end a disappointing season on a high note.
San Francisco (-3) 33, LOS ANGELES RAMS 24 – The 49ers are a different team with QB Jimmy Garoppolo and Rams stars Todd Gurley and Jared Goff will be rested.
NEW ENGLAND (-15 ½) 30, New York Jets 10 – Tom Brady’s crusade for his third league MVP award – I’m assuming he’ll be playing -- gives the Patriots something to play for.
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL IS THE MAIN REASON THE BILLS ARE 8-7
The Buffalo Bills have been far more impressive in the NFL standings than on the stats sheets this season.
The saving grace for Buffalo’s stats is turnover differential.
Remember when the Bills were 5-2 and had an amazing +14 turnover differential (17 takeaways and 3 giveaways)?
Buffalo 3-5 since and has a minus-13 turnover differential (7 takeaways and 13 giveaways over that span.
The Bills are +14 (18/4) in victories and -6 (6/12) in losses.
‘RED WINGS HAD A VERY GOOD SEASON ON AND OFF THE FIELD
The Rochester Red Wings in 2017 became the only International League team to post a winning record for the fifth straight season and the Red Wings portion of the Rochester Community Baseball (RCB) operation showed a pre-tax profit of almost $482,000 for the fiscal year.
It was the best profit operating the Red Wings since 2003.
But the bottom line once again – and for the final time -- was significantly negatively impacted by the 10th and final year of operating the NY-P League Batavia Muckdogs. RCB lost a record $336,218 in Batavia in 2017 and more than $2 million in the last 10 years.
The NY-P League has taken over the Muckdogs and is trying to sell the franchise, preferably to a buyer who’d keep the team in Batavia but probably to a buyer who would relocate. The going rate for an NY-P League franchise is $6 million. Rochester Community Baseball would get 50 percent of that sales price.
“We did well because it was a unique season in several positive ways,” RCB Chairman Gary Larder said this week. “We had a good team. We had a favorable schedule (14 of the first 17 games were on the road). And we had good weather for our top promotions (Nitro Circus, Corporate Challenge and Plates Night).”
Big crowds equal robust concessions income and the Plates promotion was a big help for souvenir sales.
RCB total revenues were $9,629,177 (baseball operations, concessions, advertising, souvenirs and concerts and other events). RCB total expenses were $9,313,159 (administrative and general, concessions, game expenses, grounds operations and maintenance, team, cost of souvenirs and concerts and events).
Investment income (mostly from the stock market) was plus $165,806.
Turnstile attendance was 288,042 in Rochester and 20,412 in Batavia.
NFL MOST VALUABLE PLAYER LOOKS LIKE A TWO-MAN RACE: BRADY VS. GURLEY
Injuries probably derailed the NFL Most Valuable Player hopes of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown.
With one week remaining in the NFL regular season, MVP looks like a two-man race between New England quarterback Tom Brady and Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley II.
Brady benefits from the QB bias. Gurley benefits from a hot December while playing for this season’s Cinderella team.
Since the official Associated Press-version of the NFL MVP award began in 1957, quarterbacks have won the MVP award 41 times, followed by running backs (17) and a linebacker, a defensive tackle and a kicker. Brady was league MVP in 2007 and 2010.
Brady enters Week 17 leading the NFL is yards passing, is second to Alex Smith in passer rating and is third with 30 TD passes.
Gurley has been on fire in his last three games: 66 carries for 366 yards plus 16 catches for 215 yards and 8 total TDs.
I’m not sure why my dark horse candidate – Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell -- has faded in the MVP race, but I believe he is out of it.
THIS ALTUVE FAN BELIEVES BRADY DESERVED AP MALE ATHLETE OF THE YEAR
Houston Astros sparkplug Jose Altuve on Wednesday was named Associated Press Male Athlete of the Year.
I’m a huge fan of Altuve but no way did he deserve this honor over New England quarterback Tom Brady.
Brady was MVP of the Super Bowl comeback victory over Atlanta and is the frontrunner for league MVP for this regular season. What more did he need to do?
Altuve was the American League batting champion and MVP but and was terrific in the Ameerican League playoffs but he batted .194 in the World Series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
AMERKS AND KNIGHTHAWKS COULD MAKE THIS A FUN WINTER
It has been quite a few years since the American Hockey League Americans and National Lacrosse League Knighthawks had successful seasons simultaneously.
So far so good this winter for fans of Rochester pro teams. The Amerks and Knighthawks both appear to be championship contenders.
The Amerks have been the complete package. Balanced scoring. Solid defense. Terrific goaltending. Depth everywhere.
The impressive numbers include:
19-7-3-3 record...44 of 64 possible points in the standings (.710; third-best in the 30-team AHL).
Outscoring opponents 102-85 (+17).
Decent record at home (8-6-0-1) and spectacular on the road (11-1-3-2; 27 of 34 possible points in the standings).
Rochester’s power play ranks a modest 18th (17.0 percent; 27-of-159) and penalty killing ranks 6th (118-of-137).
Nine players have at least 16 points. Goalies Linus Ullmark (14-5-3 record; 2.44 goals-against average; .924 save percentage) and Adam Wilcox (5-2-3; 2.86; .905) have been stellar.
The Amerks play at the Toronto Marlies Friday and return home against the Laval Rocket (for the fourth time in the last five games) Saturday, 7:05 p.m.
The Knighthawks exploded out of the starting gate with two lopsided home victories: 17-6 over the Calgary Roughnecks and 21-11 over the Buffalo Bandits.
Last season, the K-hawks finished 7-9 and were the only team in the nine-team NLL to score fewer than 200 goals. They had only 176. They’ve outscoring opponents 38-17 this season.
The big difference has been the return of team leader Cody Jamieson (1 goals and 9 assists) and a nice blend of healthy (so far) veterans (including the ever-dangerous Dan Dawson) and improving rookies and second-year players. The defense is solid and deep and veteran Matt Vinc is in vintage form and remains among the NLL’s top goalies.
Home teams are 7-2 so far this NLL season. The K-hawks face a tough road test Saturday at the defending champion Georgia Swarm.
CUTTING THE TWINS SOME SLACK...AT LEAST FOR NOW
The Minnesota Twins have lost more solid Triple-A veteran players than they’ve signed as free agents this offseason. There can be no denying that.
The Twins have discarded most of the veteran minor-leaguers they felt could never help the big-league club. OK. We get it. But don’t forget the Triple-A affiliate. The fans in Rochester expect to see another winning team at Frontier Field.
Rochester Community Baseball officials caution that there is plenty of time left to beef up Rochester’s roster for the 2018 season. And it is fair to point out three facts:
1-Rochester is the only team in the 14-team International League with a winning record in each of the past five seasons (77-67 in 2013...77-67 in 2014...77-67 in 2015...81-63 in 2016...80-62 in 2017.
2-Rochester had the International League’s second-best cumulative record 2013 through 2017: 392-326 (.546). Only Scranton/Wilkes-Barre was better: 394-322 (.550).
3-Minnesota’s farm system had the best cumulative winning percentage in baseball last season: .592. The Yankees were No. 2 at .586.
WILL SYRACUSE START SHOOTING THE BALL BETTER SOON?
The Syracuse Orange recently had a rare hot-shooting game in a home victory over the Buffalo Bulls, returned their customary poor-shooting form in an upset loss to visiting St. Bonaventure, and bounced back Wednesday night in three-point shooting and foul-shooting in a 62-47 home victory over Eastern Michigan.
SU opens the Atlantic Coast Conference portion of their its schedule Sunday at home against Virginia Tech, at Wake Forest Wednesday and home against Notre Dame, Saturday, January 6.
.SU’s 11-2 record looks good but if the team doesn’t collectively start shooting the ball better, the rest of this season could be extremely disappointing. The remaining 18 games on the regular-season scheduile are against ACC competition. The non-conference cupcakes have all been devoured.
This is a transition season for Jim Boeheim’s team. SU is young and has inexperienced big men on the back end of the zone. Three players –Tyus Battle, super freshman Oshae Brissett and Frank Howard -- are averaging a total of 50 points per game and no one else is above 5.8 points per game.
Entering this week, here is how SU ranked in the major shooting categories among the 351 Division 1 teams:
Field-goal percentage -- .430 (264th)
Three-point FG percentage -- .298 (321st)
Free-throw percentage -- .686 (237th).
SU ranks was tied for 219th in scoring with 72.8 points per game.
RAZORSHARKS ARE FAVORED TO WIN THE NEW NAPB – I THINK
The Rochester RazorSharks will open the inaugural season of the eight-team North American Premier Basketball league New Year’s Eve, Sunday, 6:05 p.m., against the Albany Patroons at Blue Cross Arena at the War Memorial.
The RazorSharks have eight returning and players and super-successful coach Chris Iversen from last season’s title team in the old Premier Basketball League. That’s as good a reason as any to think the Sharks should be favored to win this season’s championship.
I know the Sharks will be good. I have no idea how good their competition will be. Few rosters have been posted on-line and the ones that are available don’t have any – how do I put this – familiar names.
The “bigger and better” NAPB starts with eight teams spread across the country. Travel expenses will be substantial so I assume the owners have impressive bankrolls.
The eight teams are the RazorSharks, the Patroons, Owensboro-based Kentucky Thoroughbreds (replacing the defunct Kentucky Mavericks), Kansas City Tornados, Akron-based Ohio Cardinals, Vancouver Knights, Yakima Sun Kings and the Mesquite-based Nevada Desert Dogs.
The RazorSharks have posted a home schedule of 16 games, including two in April TBA against the Desert Dogs (assuming they’re still around).
THE NHL’S BEST AND WORST SURPRISES
When this NHL season began, Bovada’s projected over/under for points in the standings and wins were 88 points/39 ½ wins for the Buffalo Sabres and 68 points and 30 ½ wins for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights.
Numbers entering Friday: Vegas 50 points in the standings (second-most in the NHL) and 24 wins through 35 games...Buffalo 26 points (second-fewest in the NHL) and 9 wins through 37 games.
CHECKING OUT THE 2018 SCHEDULE FOR THE BILLS
Here is the schedule for the 2018 Bills:
Home – Miami...New England...New York Jets...Chicago...Detroit...Indianapolis...Jacksonville...Los Angeles Chargers.
Road – Miami...New England...New York Jets...Baltimore...Green Bay...Houston...Minnesota...Tennessee.
STANTON AND JUDGE OVER/UNDER COMBINED HOME RUNS FOR 2018 IS 86.5
The Gold Nugget in Las Vegas has posted an over/under of 86.5 for combined home runs by New York Yankees sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge.
That’s seems low to me. They combined for 111 HRs last season (59 by Stanton with the Miami Marlins and 52 by Judge with the Yankees). The potential for injuries to one or both obviously was factored in.
The Yankees record for combined HRs by two teammates is 115 in Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle in 1961). Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig combined for 107 HRs in 1927. The rest of the Yankees plus the other seven teams in the American League combined for 332 HRs.
SHORT SHOTS
Newarena.com last week ranked the NFL’s 32 starting quarterbacks. Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor was No. 17. I believe that was fair. All things considered, Taylor in his three seasons with the Bills has been a slightly below-average NFC quarterback on a slightly below-average NFL team.
Popular and productive midfielder Kenardo Forbes is the latest former Rochester Rhinos mainstay to join former coach Bob Lilley with the USL Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
For the record, the final record of the late-but-sometimes-great Major League Lacrosse Rochester Rattlers was 108-99 overall, including 4-7 in the postseason. They played in three championship games: won in 2008 and lost in 2014 and 2015. Most of the Rattlers stars who opted for free agency after last season have re-signed with the now-Dallas Rattlers (the only exception was St. John Fisher product Kyle Denhoff, who now works and lives in the Boston area and signed with the Boston Cannons). They might have been impressed by where they’ll be playing their home games – a 12,000-seat indoor arena at the lavish practice site of the NFL Cowboys.
Rich Dauer, the International League’s Most Valuable Player in 1976 as a Rochester Red Wings second baseman, and the first-base coach and infield instructor for the 2917 World Champion Houston Astros, underwent emergency surgery for a blood clot to his brain suffered during the team’s victory parade. He survived the life-threatening operation and reportedly is making an amazing recovery. He had decided to retire from baseball before the incident. He’s 65.
The MLBPA says the average player salary at the end of the 2017 season topped $4 million ($4,097,122) for the first time. The minimum salary was $535,000 in 2017 and will be $545,000 for 2018.
NFL Point Spead Standings: Minnesota is best (11-4), followed by New England (10-5) and Philadelphia (10-5). The Bills are 8-6-1. Cleveland is the worst (3-12).
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Friday, December 29
Myles Garrett (22)...Travis Benjamin (28)...Eric Berry (29)...Christen Press (29)...Alan Branch (33)...Richie Sexson (41)...Theo Epstein (44)...Jay Fielder (46)...Henry Jones (50)...Sean Payton (54)...Devon White (55)...Joe Gilliam (67)...Laffit Pincay Jr. (71). Jude Law (45) and Jon Voight (79) are invited to the birthday party...On this date 172 years ago (1845), Texas was admitted as the 28th state of the Union...On this date 165 years ago (1852), Emma Snodgrass was arrested in Boston for wearing pants.
Saturday, December 30
Carson Wentz (25)...Ryan Sheckler (28)...Drew Rucinski (29)...LeBron James (33)...Heath Evans (39)...Rob Scuderi (39)...Laila Ali (40)...Kenyon Martin (40)...Grant Belfour (40)...A.J. Pierzynski (41)...Tiger Woods (42)...Kerry Collins (45)...Dean Sylvester (45)...Michelle McGann (48)...Ben Johnson (56)...Sandy Koufax (82). Matt Lauer (60) is invited to the birthday party...On this date 110 years ago (1907), the Abraham Mills Commission declared that Abner Doubleday invented baseball...On this date 11 years ago (2006), Saddam Hussein was executed.
Sunday, December 31
Gabby Douglas (22)...Micah Hyde (27)...Kelvin Herrera (28)...Alex Colome (29)...Corey Crawford (33)....Paul Rodriguez (33)...Jason Campbell (36)...Scott Nichol (43)...Brent Barry (46)...Heath Shuler (46)...Esteban Loaiza (46)...Byron Russell (47)...Brad Daluiso (50)...Tyrone Corbin (55)...Rick Aguilera (56)...Rich Baldinger (58)...Gary McAdam (62)...Rene’ Robert (69). Donald Trump Jr. (40), Val Kilmer (58), Ben Kingsley (74), Alex Ferguson (76) and Anthony Hopkins (80) are invited to the birthday party.