BILLS AT PATRIOTS: THERE ARE A FEW REASONS TO DREAM OF AN UPSET
The biggest difference between the New England Patriot and the Buffalo Bills – on paper and probably on the field Sunday in Gillette Stadium – is throwing the football. The Patriots are No. 1 in the NFL in yards passing and Buffalo is on the bottom at No. 32.
The Bills have a statistical edge over New England in many categories on defense. However, the bend-but-don’t-break Patriots have done better in the most important defensive category – fewest points allowed. New England ranks 6th and Buffalo ranks 16th.
If you’re searching for reasons to think the 12-point underdog Bills can pull off the upset, here are two encouraging facts: Buffalo has allowed the fewest passes in the league and New England has allowed an NFL-most 4.9 yards per rush.
Here is the Tale of the Tape for Sunday’s Bills at Patriots important-for-both-teams AFC East showdown (rank in the 32-team NFL in parentheses):
Records – Bills 8-6...Bills 8-6
Points for/against – Bills 264-306...Patriots 395-274
Point differential – Bills -42...Patriots +121
Total offense YPG – Bills 300.3 (29)...Patriots 397.6 (2)
Total defense YAPG – Bills 351.1 (23)...Patriots 377.4 (29)
Yardage DIFF per game – Bills -50.8...Patriots +20.2
Scoring PPG – Bills 18.9 (29)...Patriots 28.2 (2)
Scoring defense – Bills 21.9 (16)...Patriots 19.6 (6)
Point DIFF per game – Bills -3.0...Patriots +8.6
First downs for/against – Bills 238 (30)/299 (30); -61...Patriots 331 (1)/294 (27); +37
Rush offense YPG – Bills 129.1 (6)...Patriots 110.6 (16)
Yards per carry – Bills 4.2 (13)...Patriots 4.2 (15)
Rush TDs – Bills 11 (14)...Patriots 13 (t7)
Pass offense YPG – Bills 171.2 (32)...Patriots 286.9 (1)
Pass YPA – Bills 6.3 (28)...Patriots 8.1 (1)
Fewest had intercepted – Bills 10 (t10)...Patriots 7 (t1)
Fewest times sacked – Bills 37 (t21)...Patriots 31 (t12)
Passer rating – Bills 81.0 (23)...Patriots 104.2 (1)
Rush defense YAPG – Bills 122.0 (25)...Patriots 122.3 (26)
Fewest TD passes allowed – Bills 11 (1)...Patriots 24 (t23)...Is Tom Brady worried?
Yards allowed per rush attempt – Bills 4.2 (18)...Patriots 4.9 (32...Good news for LeSean McCoy?
Fewest rush TDs allowed – Bills 19 (32)...Patriots 6 (t2)
Pass defense – Bills 229.1 (17)...Patriots 255.1 (29)
Interceptions by – Bills 16 (t4)...Patriots 12 (t13)
Sacks by – Bills 24 (29)...Patriots 32 (t16)
Takeaways – Bills 23 (7)...Patriots 18 (t18)
Fewest giveaways – Bills 16 (t6)...Patriots 11 (2)
Turnover differential – Bills +7 (t5)...Patriots +7 (t5)
Sack differential – Bills 113 (24/37)...Patriots +1 (32/31)
Penalties – Bills 88x744...Patriots 89x776
Opposing penalties – Bills 81x718...Patriots 98x868
Tom Brady vs. Bills – 27-3.
Tyrod Taylor vs. Patriots – 1-4 (only win was when Brady was suspended).
The bottom line: Buffalo is better than New England in many defensive categories. An exception is scoring defense – the most important stat of all...The Patriots have huge advantages in all passing categories.
NFL WEEK 16 “BEST BET”: RAVENS TO CRUSH COLTS
The Baltimore Ravens are fighting for a playoff berth and the (Andrew) Luck-less Indianapolis Colts are playing out the season.
Baltimore’s defense has been solid all season and the offense is showing signs of life. All signs point to the Ravens flying high at home on Saturday.
This week’s NFL “Best Bet”: BALTIMORE (13 ½) 28, Indianapolis 10.
Saturday’s other game
(home team in CAPS)
Minnesota 27, GREEN BAY (+9) 13 – The Packers are 22-3 outright and 15-8-2 against the point spread in their last 25 home games of the season. So what? The Vikings are much better now and Green Bay star QB Aaron Rodgers won’t be playing.
Sunday’s games
NEW ENGLAND (-12) 30, Buffalo 13 – Can’t see the Bills sticking close with the Patriots playing for home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Detroit 28, CINCINNATI (+4 ½) 20 – The Lions are seeking their sixth road win of this season and the disappointing Bengals haven’t shown much life lately.
KANSAS CITY (-10 ½) 33, Miami 14 – The Chiefs have recovered from their 1-6 slump and Alex Smith vs. Jay Cutler is a QB mismatch.
CHICAGO (-6 ½) 22, Cleveland 14 – Has struggling Bears rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky found a team he can beat? I believe so.
CAROLINA (-10) 35, Tampa Bay 20 – The Panthers have more to play for and more talent.
NEW ORLEANS (-5 ½) 33, Atlanta 24 – The Saints lost star rookie running back Alvin Kamara to a concussion in a 20-17 loss in Atlanta two weeks. He’s back and should make a big difference.
WASHINGTON (-3 ½) 24, Denver 17 – Kirk Cousins is due for a big game and Brock Osweiler isn’t likely to match last week’s heroics in a win over the Colts.
Los Angeles Rams 35, TENNESSEE (+6 ½) 20 – The Rams have a big edge in firepower and the aggressive defense to frustrate slumping Marcus Mariota.
Los Angeles Chargers 27, NEW YORK JETS (+6 ½) 13 – The Chargers are battling for a playoff spot and have a huge advantage at quarterback with Philip Rivers.
Jacksonville 24, SAN FRANCISCO (+4 ½) 14 – The 49ers have turned things around with new QB Jimmy Garoppolo but the Jaguars have far more overall talent.
DALLAS (-5) 28, Seattle 17 – The battered Seahawks get to face a refreshed Ezekiel Elliott coming off his six-game suspension.
ARIZONA (-3 ½) 20, New York Giants 14 – The Cardinals are playing their final home game of he season. That’s about the only reason to like either of these disappointing teams.
Monday’s games
Pittsburgh 30, HOUSTON (+9 ½) 13 – The Steelers are much better and should be in an ornery mood after last week’s controversial home loss to New England.
PHILADELPHIA (-8 ½) 35, Oakland 20 – The Eagles are tuning up for the playoffs and hope to stay sharp with Nick Foles replacing injured star QB Carson Wentz.
Favorites dominated last week’s action and I’m going strong with the chalk again this week.
RED WINGS NEW MANAGER JOEL SKINNER HAS A STRONG RESUME’
Joel Skinner, the new manager of the Rochester Red Wings, has a solid managing resume’ – from the NY-P League with Watertown to the major leagues with the Cleveland Indians.
Skinner, 56, was a catcher for nine seasons in the majors (.228 batting average, 17 HRs, 136 RBI in 504 games), with the White Sox, Yankees and Indians. He also has been a big-league coach for 10 seasons, including 2011 as Oakland’s bench coach.
He began his managing career in 1995, when he was the NY-P Manager of the Year after leading Watertown (46-27) to the championship.
He was his league’s Manager of the Year with Kinston (Carolina League) in 1997 and Akron (Eastern League) in 1998. He was the 2000 Baseball America and Sporting News Minor League Manager of the Year in 2000 with the International League Buffalo Bisons (86-59).
He managed the Charlotte Knights (IL) from 2012 to 2015 (83-61, 65-78, 63-81 and 74-70).
In 2002, Cleveland fired Charlie Manuel July 11 and third-base coach Skinner became the youngest manager in the majors that year. He was 41. The Indians were 35-41 overall under Skinner, including 15-13 in September. He was in the running to return as manager in 2003 but Eric Wedge got the job.
Joel has the distinction of being part of one of the soon-to-be only four our father-son manager combinations in major-league history: Earle and Connie Mack...George Sisler Sr. and Dick Sisler...Bob and Joel Skinner...and Aaron Boone (Yankees) will join his dad Bob in 2018.
ESPN NFL MOST VALUABLE PLAYER POLL HAS TOM BRADY WAY AHEAD
ESPN this week polled 12 “experts” to determine the leaders for NFL Most Valuable Player with two weeks remaining in the regular season. I was surprised by New England quarterback Tom Brady’s huge lead in the balloting and the lack of support for Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell.
Brady was the only player to appear on all 12 ballots. He was first on 11 of the 12 ballots. And he amassed 59 voting points on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale.
Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley II was second with 27 voting points (1-4-1-1-1) and appeared on the second-most 8 ballots.
The biggest surprise to me was the lack of respect for Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell, who leads the NFL in yards rushing, yards from scrimmage and offensive touches (runs + catches). He appeared on only 2 of the 12 ballots and had 6 voting points (0-1-0-1-0-0).
Minnesota quarterback Case Keenum received strong support. He appeared on 6 of the 12 ballots and finished fifth with 14 voting points (0-0-4-0-2).
A total of 14 players received votes, including 9 quarterbacks.
For the record, Brady has two NNL MVP awards (2007 and 2010) and three Super Bowl MVP awards (XXXVIII, XLIX and LI).
SHORT SHOTS
The Rochester Amerks kept rolling Wednesday night with a 3-1 home win over the Belleville Senators. Unfortunately, the announced crowd was a mere 2,782.
Chris Taylor of the Amerks is making a strong early bid for American Hockey League Coach of the Year. Since the Louis A. R. Pieri Memorial Award began in 1967, the only three Rochester coaches to win were Don Cherry (1974), Don Lever (1991) and Randy Cunneyworth (2005).
Tommy Watkins, a huge fan favorite with the Rochester Red Wings as a good-natured, hustling utility infielder in 2007 through 2009, is one step away from managing the Wings. His 10th year in Minnesota’s farm system as an instructor, coach and manager will be as manager of the 2018 Double-A (Southern League) Chattanooga Lookouts...Another former Red Wing infielder, Toby Gardenhire, son of former.
Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire, will begin his managing career at Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels (Class A Midwest League).
Versatile sportscaster Dick Enberg died yesterday of an apparent heart attack at his home in California. He was 82. His familiar comment was “oh my” and it didn’t get stale. He never felt he was bigger than the event he was covering and had a smooth easy-to-listen-to style. I envied him for calling TV play-by-play for the San Diego Padres in his “semi-retirement” from 2000 through 2006. It clearly was a labor of love.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Friday, December 22
Zach Britton (30)...Jerry Holmes (60)...Lonnie Smith (62)...Ron Greschner (63)...Ian Turnbull (64)...Jan Stephenson (66)...Ray Guy (68)...Steve Garvey (69)...Steve Carlton (73). Mistico (35) and Ted Cruz (47) are invited to the birthday party.
Saturday, December 23
Mitch Haniger (27)...Hanley Ramirez (34)...Scott Gomez (38)...Victor Martinez (39)...Alge Crumpler (40)...Kris Brown (49)...Greg Biffle (48)...Petr Klima (53)...Jim Harbaugh (54)...Bennie Cunningham (63)...former Amerk Steve Langdon (64)...Jack Ham (69)...Jerry Koosman (75)...Paul Hornung (82).
Sunday, December 24
Davante Adams (25)...Gregor Blanco (34)...Jay Bilas (54)...Timo Jutila (54)...Jay Wight (56)...Paul Pressey (59)...Gary Dineen (74)...Paul Tagliabue (77). Ryan Seacrest (43) and Ricky Martin (46) are invited to the birthday party.
Monday, December 25 Merry Christmas
Garrett Cooper (27)...Eric Gordon (29)...Demaryius Thomas (30)...Alexander Rusev (32)...Chris Naeole (43)...Stu Barnes (47)...Joel Savage (48)...Storm Davis (56)...former Red Wing Tom O’Malley (57)...Rickey Henderson (59)...William Andrews (62)...Barry Pearson (67)...Dan Pastorini (68)...Larry Csonka (71). Justin Trudeau (46), Sissy Spacek (68) and Jimmy Buffett (71) are invited to the birthday party.
Season’s greetings. My next WHAM 1180.com column will be Friday, December 29. Thank you for reading and listening.