KICKING OFF WITH THOUGHTS ON THE BILLS...
Give the overachieving Bills credit for staying alive for that oh-so-elusive playoff berth with a 24-16 victory over Miami Sunday at New Era Field.
Buffalo is 8-6 and probably would clinch a wild-card playoff spot with a 10-6 final record via victories at New England Sunday and at Miami December 31.
Is a win over the Patriots possible? Sure, anything in the NFL is possible. Probable? Of course not. New England opened as a 10 ½-point favorite at 6 p.m. Sunday and was up to a 12 ½-point favorite a few hours later. The Five Thirty Eight computer simulations give the Patriots an 84 percent probability to beat Buffalo.
--Five Thirty Eight’s playoff probabilities give Buffalo a 36 percent chance to make the playoffs. The chances of the other AFC teams battling for playoff spots: Kansas City 95 percent...Baltimore 87 percent...Tennessee 62 percent...Los Angeles Chargers 14 percent...Miami 4 percent.
Here are the Five Thirty Eight win probabilities for those teams this week: Baltimore (-11 ½) 84 percent to beat visiting Indianapolis...Kansas City (-8) 76 percent to beat Miami...Los Angeles Chargers (-2) 57 percent to beat the host New York Jets...Tennessee (+3) 40 percent to beat the host Los Angeles Rams.
--So Bills fans should root for the Colts to beat the Ravens, the Dolphins to beat the Chiefs, the Jets to beat the Chargers and the Rams to beat the Titans. Good luck. Stranger things have happened.
--The biggest difference in Buffalo’s victory Sunday over Miami was at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor played considerably better than he usually does for the Bills and Jay Cutler played like he usually does for the Dolphins.
It probably was Taylor’s final home game for the Bills. It was good to see him go out in style with one of his best performances.
Most people would rate Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger and Oakland’s Derek Carr far above Taylor as NFL quarterbacks – and they’d be right. But sometimes a QB is better off realizing his limitations. Roethlisberger and Carr both tried to be heroes and turned the ball over in the final seconds of big games. Tyrod probably would’ve been more conservative and protected the ball.
--The statistical highlight of the game was LeSean McCoy topping 10,000 career yards rushing. Is McCoy a future Pro Football Hall of Famer? He’s well on his way. He’ll turn 30 in July and should have at least two more productive seasons left in him.
I believe Adrian Peterson is a cinch for the Hall of Fame and McCoy figures to wind up with similar rushing numbers and better receiving numbers:
Peterson (turns 33 March 21)...11th NFL season...133 games...2,574 carries for 12,276 yards...4.8 yards per carry...99 rushing TDs...352 catches for 2,015 yards and 5 TDs.
McCoy (turns 30 July 12)...9th NFL season...131 games...2,157 carries for 10,111 yards...4.7 yards per carry...66 rushing TDs...434 catches for 3,280 yards and 15 TDs.
--No matter what it means in terms of making the playoffs, it will be very interesting to see how the Bills at Dolphins rematch shakes down on December 31. I figure Buffalo will be gunning for a 9-7 record. Not bad at all in the first season of the Beane-McDermott Regime.
GREAT WIN FOR SYRACUSE OVER THE HOYAS
Syracuse U.’s 86-79 overtime victory Saturday afternoon over previously undefeated (8-0) Georgetown wasn’t a big surprise. The Hoyas had played by far the softest schedule in Division I hoops and was a 5-point underdog at home.
But HOW the Orange won was a surprise. One of the coldest-shooting teams in the country entering the game was 6-of-14 from three-point range and 9-of-10 from the foul line in the second half and overtime to overcome a 13-point deficit and boost its record to 9-1.
Tyus Battle (29 points), freshman surprise Oshae Brissett (25 points and 14 rebounds) and much-improved Frank Howard (19 points and 7 assists) had very good games. Matthew Moyer and Marek Dolezaj made positive contributions.
The biggest negative was the play of very tall and very skinny centers Paschal Chukwu and Bourama Sidibe. They often looked lost on defense at the back end of SU’s zone and are no offensive threats.
Chukwu, Sidibe and Dolezaj all need to add weight and muscle if they hope to ever hold their own against ACC competition.
The Orange host Buffalo Tuesday and St. Bonaventure Friday.
HOPED FOR 14,000...TOTAL WAS 10,559
I thought the hockey Amerks Friday night and the college basketball St. Bonaventure Bonnies Saturday afternoon could draw a combined 14,000 fans (at least 7,000 each).
Not close. The total was 10,559: 4,731 and 5,828.
The Rochester Americans are playing excellent hockey and were hosting the American Hockey League-best Toronto Marlies. It was cold but the weather was no excuse. The Buffalo Sabres were playing at home against Carolina. The game was on TV in Rochester. That never helps.
Attendance was a mere 4,731. Not horrible. But not good for a Friday night. If the Amerks keep winning, maybe they’ll draw more fans.
The Bonnies beat visiting Vermont 81-79 Saturday afternoon Former Greece Athena star Antony Lamb didn’t disappoint the fans from Greece. He led all scorers with 27 points
Attendance was 5,828. Not bad. But I thought the only Division I basketball game of the season in Rochester would do better.
AMERKS C.J. SMITH IS AHL’S TOP ROOKIE SCORER
The Rochester Amerks have a balanced attack and the leading scorer is rookie left wing C.J. Smith. The 23-year-old left wing has 10 goals and 20 assists for 30 points in 28 games. He is an impressive +11 in plus/minus (goals scored and allowed by the team when he’s been on the ice in even manpower situations).
Smith was signed as a free agent by Buffalo last spring and has one assist in two games with the Sabres.
He’s third in NHL scoring, behind only Hershey veteran Phil Bourque (32 points in 29 games) and Henigh Valley and former Amerk center Phil Varone (31 points in 29 games).
Smith figures to earn a promotion to Buffalo soon. He might not be in Rochester long enough to join this distinguished list of Amerks who earned American Hockey League Rookie of the Year honors: Billy Hicke 1958-59...Mike Walton 1965-66...Ron Ward 1968-69...Claude Verret 1983-84...Donald Audette 1989-90...Mika Noronen 1999-2000.
SHORT SHOTS
Not every fan of the New York Yankees likes the John Sterling/Suzyn Waldman radio duo, but really – would the broadcasts be the same without them? They’ll reportedly be back with a new one-year deal and they should have lots of fun describing a loaded team.
The NFC was 4-0 against the AFC on Sunday and leads this season’s interconference series by a lopsided 36-22.
Have you ever seen a crazier final minute of an NFL game than Sunday’s New England at Pittsburgh classic? I’m still not absolutely sure what happened but it was fun. Maybe the Patriots have run out of luck after winning that showdown
Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) veteran right wing and Hilton product Ryan Callahan is out indefinitely with a right arm injury suffered in a 4-1 win over Arizona last Thursday night. He has 1 goal and 5 assists in 29 games this season.
Matt Moulson, scoreless in 14 games with the Buffalo Sabres when was loaned to the AHL Ontario Reign rather than to Rochester because the Sabres didn’t want him to take playing time from younger players in Rochester, has found his scoring touch – the 34-year-old left wing has 1 goal and 8 assists in his first five games. He’s in the fourth year of a five-year, $25-million contract and still is property of the Sabres.
‘HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Monday, December 18
Byron Buxton (24)...Chris Carter (31)...Ben Watson (37)...Marco Coleman (48)...Bob Corkum (50)...Don Beebe (53)...Charles Oakley (54)...Bobby Jones (66)...Greg Landry (71)...Hubie Green (71). Christina Aguilera (37), Katie Holmes (39), Stone Cold Steve Austin (53), Brad Pitt (54), Ray Liotta (63) and Keith Richards (74) are invited to the birthday party...Ty Cobb was born on this date 131 years ago (1886) and died in 1961 at age 74.
Tuesday, December 19
Ian Kennedy (33)...Mo Williams (35)...Jake Plummer (43)...Warren Sapp (45)...Tom Gugliotta (48)...Alberto Tomba (51)...Eric Weinrich (51)...Arvydas Sabonis (53)...Randall McDaniel (53)...Eugene Goodlow (59)...Kevin McHale (60)...Stan and Stu Cliburn (61)...Murray Kuntz (72)...Ron Schock (74)...Al Kaline (83). Kake Gyllenhaal (37) and Jennifer Beals (54) and invited to the birthday party.