KICKING OFF WITH THOUGHTS ON THE BATTLIN’ BILLS
Please don’t accuse me of being tough on the Buffalo Bills today. Sunday was huge 16-10 victory in Kansas City, usually a very tough place to play...but how often have the Bills won a game by doing so little offensively?
Sure, the defense showed up after three horrendous lack-of-effort losses. It was a remarkable and unexpected turnaround. I think it was an overall good performance by Buffalo’s “D” -- and a putrid performance by Kansas City’s “O” (offense).
Kansas City’s fans seldom boo their team at Arrowhead. They did on Sunday and for good reason. The Chiefs averaged only 4.1 yards per play: 4.8 yards per pass play and 2.9 yards per rush.
The Bills had even more trouble moving the football. They averaged 3.9 yards per play (5.3 yards per pass and 2.8 yards per carry).
One significant difference was time of possession. Buffalo 33:18. Chiefs 26:42. The Bills had 68 plays and Kansas City had only 57 plays.
It was a good old-fashioned pitchers’ duel. Buffalo played a better game of keep-away and scored six more points.
So the Bills have a 6-5 record (only 6 of the AFC’s 16 teams have winning records) entering a three-game homestand versus New England, Indianapolis and Miami. There are upsets every week in the NFL, but a Buffalo victory Sunday would be a major miracle. But beating the Colts and the Dolphins is a reasonable assignment. I prefer Tyrod Taylor versus Jacoby Brissett and Jay Cutler or Matt Moore.
So, let’s say, the Bills are 8-6 with two games remaining in the regular season – at New England and at Miami.
10-6 almost certainly would be good for a wild-card playoff berth. 9-7 could well be good enough. 8-8 might be good enough.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Buffalo a 22.4 percent chance to make the playoffs. It notes that the keys to victory for the Bills are sound defense (to help control time of possession and give the offense shorter fields), running the ball and Tyrod Taylor continuing to avoid giveaways. FPI notes that Buffalo is 13-6 the last three seasons in games Taylor had no giveaways, including 4-1 this season (NOTE: that sure beats 5 INTs in one half).
It will be fun to have a playoff pulse in the month of December. Many of us would consider ending the 17-year playoff drought a positive and worthwhile season for the Bills no matter what their record.
NFL WEEK 12 EARLY LINE: PATRIOTS ONLY -8 AT BUFFALO
The New England Patriots are favored by only 8 points for Sunday’s game at the Buffalo Bills. I’m surprised they aren’t favored by a few points more, aren’t you?
Here is the rest of the Las Vegas early line for NFL Week 12 (courtesy of Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook): Thursday night, Washington at Dallas (-1 ½)...Sunday, Detroit at Baltimore (-3)...San Francisco at Chicago (-3 ½)...Minnesota at Atlanta (-3)...Denver at Miami (+1)...Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-9 ½)...Houston at Tennessee (-7)...Tampa Bay at Green Bay (pick-em)...Kansas City at New York Jets (+3 ½)...Carolina at New Orleans (-3 ½)...Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers (-13 1/2)...Los Angeles Rams at Arizona (+6)...New York Giants at Oakland (-8 ½)...Philadelphia at Seattle (+4 ½)...Monday night, Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+6).
THE NUMBERS GAME
Atlanta wide receiver Mohamed Sanu threw a 51-yard TD pass to teammate Julio Jones in Sunday’s 34-20 home win over Tampa Bay. His NFL career passing line is rather remarkable: 6-[for-6 (1.000 completion percentage) for 228 Yards (38.0-yard average) and 3 TDs. His career passer rating is the maximum 158.3. Sunday’s pass was his first attempt since 2014.
Entering Monday Night Football, Buffalo ranks 26th in the 32-team NFL in total offense (299.0) and 25th in total defense (354.9). The Bills are 22nd in scoring (20.4 points per game) and 17th in scoring defense (allowing 23.6 points per game).
As the Bills battle to end their 17-year playoff drought, the New England Patriots on Sunday clinched their 17th straight winning season.
Pittsburgh Steelers superstar Antonio Brown was the 22nd wide receiver selected in the 2010 NFL college draft (No. 195 overall out of Central Michigan). For the record, the Buffalo Bills chose C.J. Spiller, Torell Troup, Alex Carrington, Marcus Easley, Ed Wang, Arthur Moats, and Danny Batten before Pittsburgh selected Brown. The Bills of course weren’t the only team that goofed on Brown in that draft.
Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell lead the NFL in yards receiving (1,195) and yards rushing. Respectively, so their obviously the NFL’s top WR/RB duo (2,196 combined yards). Buffalo’s RB/WR duo (LeSean McCoy 758 + Zay Jones 269) have combined for 1,027 yards.
AMERKS KEEP ROLLING...SABRES KEEP GETTING ROLLED
The Rochester Americans had a productive weekend against the Binghamton Devils.
On Friday night, in an old-fashioned goal-scoring barrage at Blue Cross Arena at the War Memorial, the Amerks buried the Devils 10-3.
On Saturday night, the visiting Amerks overcame a 3-1 deficit entering the third period to won 4-3 in overtime.
Through 19 games, Rochester has an 11-5-2-1 record and a .658 point percentage (25 of 38 possible points in the standings), fifth-best in the 30-team American Hockey League. The Amerks are 5-1-2-1 on the road (13 of 18 possible points).
Keys to Rochester’s success include balanced scoring and solid play by goalie Linus Ullmark (9-3-0-1 record; 2.94 goals-against average; 918 save percentage). Special teams have performed above average (10th on the power play 19.6 percent, 21-for-107...15th in penalty killing 82.3 percent, 79-for-96).
The Amerks play Wednesday at the Utica Comets, Friday at home against the Hartford Wolf Pack and Saturday at the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.
The Sabres continue to struggle. After an encouraging 3-1 home win over the Edmonton Oilers, they lost 3-0 Saturday night in Montreal. Montreal’s first goal went in off Buffalo defenseman Rasmis Ristolainen’s stick. Montreal’s second goal was the seventh short-handed goal allowed by the Sabres this season. An apparent late goal by Buffalo was erased by a goalie-interference call.
Buffalo is 6-14-4, including 3-7-1 at home. The Sabres are last in scoring (2.29 goals per game) and 29th in fewest goals allowed per game (3.42). They have the NHL’s second-worst power play (13.3 percent; 10-of-75).
The Sabres will be home Tuesday (vs. Tampa Bay) and Friday (Pittsburgh) and play at Pittsburgh Saturday.
Pretty soon Sabres fans might be talking about the possibilities of landing a plum pick in the 2018 NHL entry draft.
BROCKPORT GOLDEN EAGLES FACE A TOUGH TEST IN DIVISION III “ELITE 8”
The College at Brockport has reached the quarterfinals (“Elite Eight”) of the NCAA Division III football playoffs.
The Golden Eagles are 12-0 after a 49-28 home victory Saturday over Wesley College.
Brockport will travel to Delaware Valley University noon Saturday. It should be a terrific game. Both teams are 12-0. Delaware Valley was 7th in the final Division III power rankings and Brockport was 10th.
Delaware Valley defeated Western New England University 35-0 in the first round of the NCAA Division III tournament and beat Husson University 37-15 in the second round.
Here’s how these two powerhouse teams measure up in the stats through Saturday’s playoff games (national rank among the 250 Division III teams in parentheses):
Total offense – Brockport 471.1 yards per game (19th)...Delaware Valley 426.1 (55th)
Total defense – Brockport 233.3 yards allowed per game (6th)...Delaware Valley 248.8 (12th)
Soring – Brockport 40.6 points per game (15th)...Delaware Valley 39.5 (20th)
Scoring defense – Brockport 12.2 PAPG (9th)...Delaware Valley 8.8 PAPG (2nd).
Yardage differential per game – Brockport +237.8...Delaware Valley +177.3
Points differential per game – Brockport +28.4...Delaware Valley +30.7.
In Division III schedule difficulty for the regular season, Brockport was 57th and Delaware Valley was 59th.
Here’s how the “Elite 8” ranked in the final regular-season Division III rankings by D3football.com: 1st-Mary Hardin-Baylor...2nd-Mount Union...3rd-Oshkosh...4th-St. Thomas...7th-Delaware Valley...10th-College at Brockport...15th-Frostburg State...17th Wartburg.
FIRST TOUGH TEST FOR UNDEFEATED SYRACUSE MONDAY NIGHT VS. MARYLAND
Coach Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse Orange basketball team is 5-0 and underappreciated by Associated Press Top 25 voters.
Wins over Cornell, Iona, Texas Southern, Oakland and Toledo have been underwhelming. The schedule is about to get much tougher. SU’s next three games:
Host Maryland Terps, Monday, 7 p.m. – Maryland is 6-1. The Terps were 5-0 before a 63-61 upset loss to St. Bonaventure last Friday night in the Emerald Coast Classic. They bounced back with an 80-65 victory over New Mexico. SU is favored by 3 points. Bob’s pick: Maryland 67-63.
Versus Kansas Saturday, 5:30 p.m., in the Hoophill Miami Invitational in Miami, Fla.
Versus Connecticut, Tuesday, December 5, in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden.
SHORT SHOTS
St. Bonaventure’s 63-61 upset victory over Maryland last Friday won’t hurt ticket sales for the game against Vermont, Saturday, December 16, at Blue Cross Arena at the Rochester War Memorial. The Bonnies are 3-2. Their only losses were 77-75 to visiting Niagara in their season-opening game and 89-79 to TCU last Saturday night in the Emerald Coast Classic. Vermont is 5-1. The only loss for the Catamounts was 73-69 at Kentucky November 12. Vermont’s leading scorer is sophomore Anthony Lamb (Greece Athena).
Syracuse U.’s football season ended last Saturday with a 42-14 home loss to Boston College. The Orange upset visiting Clemson 27-24 October 13 to improve to 4-3 but lost their next five games by a combined 218-110 (outgained 2,865 to 2,235). Next season’s tentative schedule includes home games versus Wagner, Connecticut, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina and Carolina State; and road games versus Western Michigan, Boston College, Clemson, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame (November 17).
How great are the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors? They’re 19-0 minus Kevin Durant the last two seasons (including 4-0 this season).
For the record, the official new address for the former Major League Lacrosse Rochester Rattlers is: Dallas Rattlers, Ford Center, 9 Cowboys Way, Frisco, TX 75034.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Monday, November 27
John Ross (22)...Michael Floyd (28)...Brendan Haywood (38)...Jimmy Rollins (39)...Ivan Rodriguez (46)...Nick Van Excel (46)...Tim Laker (48)...Ken O’Brien (57)...Mike Scioscia (59)...Pierre Mondou (62)...Jayne Kennedy (66)...Don Strock (67)...Manny Leaks (72)...ex-Red Wing pitcher Billy Short (80). Robin Givens (59) and Caroline Kennedy (60) are invited to the birthday party...Jimi Hendrix was born on this date 75 years ago (1942) and died in 1970 at age 27. Bruce Lee was born on this date 77 years ago (1940) and died in 1973 at age 32.
Tuesday, November 28
Jarvis Landry (25)...Marc-Andre Fleury (33)...Andrew Bogut (33)...Leonardo Barbosa (35)...Jason Ferguson (43)...Robb Nen (48)...Pedro Astacio (48)...Matt Williams (52)...Johnny Newman (54)...Walt Weiss (54)...Dave Duerson (57)...Chris Langevin (58)...Dave Righetti (59)...Red Wings Hall of Famer Jim Fuller (67)...Paul Warfield (75). Jon Stewart (53) and Ed Harris (67) are invited to the birthday party.