WHY SEAN McDERMOTT SHOULD BE NFL MID-SEASON TOP COACH:
BUFFALO’s 5-3 RECORD IS A MINOR FOOTBALL MIRACLE
The most important number in any team sport is the won-lost record.
So thumbs up to the Buffalo Bills for being 5-3 midway through this NFL season.
But it doesn’t take much statistical analysis to deduce that the Bills are an average-at-best NFL team in terms of overall talent and that their winning record is a tribute to coach Sean McDermott and to the players who’ve bought into what he’s been selling.
The Bills host New Orleans Sunday at New Era Field. The Saints now are favored by 3 points. I’m surprised they aren’t favored by more.
Check out these numbers through eight games (the team with the better ranking in the 32-team NFL is listed first):
Records – Saints 6-2...Bills 5-3
Point differential – Saints +66...Bills +25
Total offense – Saints 392.5 YPG (2nd in 32=team NFL)...Bills 303.8 (26th)
Total defense – Saints 326.6 YAPG (15th)...Bills 344.6 (22nd)
Scoring – Saints 26.6 PPG (6th)...Bills 21.8 (16th)
Scoring defense – Bills 18.6 PAPG (t5th)...Saints 19.4 (t9th)
Passing offense – Saints 269.8 YPG (4th)...Bills 186.9 (30th)
Completion percentage – Saints 71.6 (1st)...Bills 65.3 (8th)
Yards per pass ATT – Saints 8.1 (4th)...Bills 6.9 (21st)
TD passes – Saints 13 (t11th)...Bills 10 (t21st)
Fewest passes had INT – Bills 2 (t1st)...Saints 4 (t5th)
Fewest sacks allowed – Saints 8 (1st)...Bills 26 (t25th)
Passer rating – Saints 105.0 (3rd)...Bills 95.8 (9th)
Rushing offense – Saints 122.8 YPG (7th)...Bills 116.9 (11th)
Yards per rush – Saints 4.3 (9th)...Bills 3.7 (24th)
TD runs – Saints 8 (t5)...Bills 6 (t13)
First downs – Saints 166 (t8)...Bills 142 (27th)
Fewest penalties – Saints 51 for 445 yards...Bills 60 for 518 yards
Turnover differential – Bills +11 (1st): 17T/6G...Saints +3 (t10th): 12T/9G
Pass defense – Saints 210.5 (12th)...Bills 250.3 (26th)
OPP completion % -- Saints 59.9 (11th)...Bills 63.9 (21st)
OPP yards per ATT – Saints 6.8 (14th)...Bills 6.9 (17th)
Fewest TD passes allowed – Bills 7 (3rd)...Saints 10 (t7th)
INTs by -- Bills 11 (t2nd)...Saints 9 (t7th)
Sacks by – Saints 23 (t9)...Bills 14 (27th)
OPP passer rating – Bills 76.6 (5th)...Saints 79.2 (7th)
Rush defense – Bills 94.4 (8th)...Saints 116.1 (19th)
OPP yards per rush – Bills 3.7 (11th)...Saints 4.7 (29th)...holes Sunday for LeSean McCoy?
Kicking – Bills 15x15 FGs; 14x14 XP...Saints 13x17 FGs; 14x16 XP
KO returns – Bills 22.7...Saints 22.2
Punt returns – Bills 9.5/OPP 5.6...Saints 5.6/OPP 11.4.
The bottom line – The Saints have a big advantage (20 to 11) in the categories listed above...Buffalo’s most significant advantages are turnover differential and special teams. They could turn the tide if the Bills can keep the game close...Granted, there is no way to measure heart and coaching. The Bills rate high marks for both. But the Saints also are well-coached and enter this game on a six-game winning streak after a 0-2 start...Weather bulletin: the colder and windier, the better for Buffalo.
Bob’s pick: New Orleans 31, Buffalo 20. Again – I hope I’m wrong.
NFL WEEK 10’s “BEST BET”: RAMS TO CRUSH THE TEXANS
A lot of things are going right for the 6-2 Los Angeles Rams, with much-improved QB Jared Goff running the NFL’s highest-scoring offense.
Injuries have undermined Houston’s defense and the season-ending knee injury to rookie star QB Deshaun Watson was a crushing blow to the offense.
This week’s “Best Bet” looks too good to be true: LOS ANGELES RAMS (-12) 38, Houston 15.
Sunday’s other games
(home teams in CAPS)
New Orleans 31, BUFFALO (+3) 20 – Warning: the Bills are 7-1 ATS following a Thursday game. I hope that trend continues but I don’t think it will.
CHICAGO (-5 ½) 24, Green Bay 13 – Not exactly a scintillating QB duel: Mitchell Trubisky vs. Brett Hundley. The Packers were favored in the last 17 meetings but the Bears have a better running game and defense.
Pittsburgh 35, INDIANAPOLIS (+10) 20 – Colts WR T.Y. Hilton might have a productive afternoon against Pittsburgh’s suspect secondary, but the Steelers have a better overall defense and much more firepower.
DETROIT (-12) 23, Cleveland 17 – The Lions could be a bit flat coming off a rare win in Green Bay and are 2-12 against the Las Vegas point spread ATS) after playing the Packers versus losing teams. Five of 0-8 Cleveland’s losses were by a combined 16 points.
JACKSONVILLE (-3 ½) 27, Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Running back Leonard Fournette returns from a one-game suspension for the Jaguars and could be the difference. Warning: the Chargers are 6-0 outright and ATS in the six meetings since 2010.
New York Jets 24, TAMPA BAY (+2) 14 – The surprising Jets would be 5-5 with a win and the Buccaneers will be missing QB Jameis Winston (shoulder) and WR Mike Evans (one-game suspension). Tampa Bay is 0-8 outright and ATS in the last eight meetings.
WASHINGTON (+1 ½) 24, Minnesota 17 – The Redskins are tough to figure, but they should be getting healthier and are coming off an upset victory in Seattle.
TENNESSEE (-4 ½) 21, Cincinnati 13 – The Titans have the better running game and I prefer Marcus Mariota over Andy Dalton, who is 2-11-1 outright and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 games versus winning teams.
ATLANTA (-3) 27, Dallas 17 – I assume Cowboys battering ram Ezekiel Elliott won’t be playing – never a sure thing – and the Falcons are due for a big effort for their disappointed home fans.
SAN FRANCISCO (+2 ½) 24, New York Giants 20 – The 49ers are lousy but the Giants could be worse. The pressure is on coach Ben McAdoo and QB Eli Manning. Do you think the team will rally behind them? I see 25-plus carries for Carlos Hyde and the first victory for 0-9 San Francisco.
New England 28, DENVER (+7 ½) 24 – The Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 Sunday night road games but the Broncos play enough defense to keep this game close at home.
Monday night’s game
CAROLINA (-9) 27, Miami 10 –- The offensively-challenged Dolphins take on one of the NFL’s toughest defensse and it looks like a mismatch. Some people are surprised that the Panthers are 6-3. I’m more surprised that Miami is 4-4.
WIFFLE BALL MAKES THE TOY HALL OF FAME
Congratulations to all of you former and current Wiffle Ball players. The Wiffle Ball on Thursday was inducted into the Strong Museuum of Play’s Toy Hall of Fame.
The other new inductees: the board game CLUE and the paper airplane.
Among the also-rans in the voting for the Class of 2017:the game RISK...matchbox cars...My Little Pony...Magic 8 Ball...PEZ candy dispenser...Transformers...the card game UNO...play food...sand (honest).
I wonder why Wiffle Ball is in but baseballs, softballs, footballs, soccer balls, basketballs, volleyballs, handballs, tennis balls, ping pong balls, bowling balls, and pucks, etc., are not in. “Ball” was inducted in 2009. That covered a lot of territory, but now only Wiffle Ball has been singled out above the others?
I’m not complaining. I enjoyed playing Wiffle Ball. I’m just wondering.
BELIEVE IT OR NOT: BONNIES RATED ABOVE SYRACUSE
CBS Sports this week posted men’s college basketball pre-season rankings by state.
The top three in New York State: 1-St. Bonaventure...2-St. John’s...3-Syracuse.
SU coach Jim Boeheim would very much like to have St. Bonaventure’s backcourt Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley), but I’m fairly confident that the Orange will be the better team by the time this season ends.
Of course, it would be fun if the Orange and the Bonnies played each other this season – and every season. They’re only 180 miles apart and the rivalry would be great for interest in college hoops in our state.
Unfortunately, the two schools have met on a basketball court only six times since 2001 (including an 87-78 defending national champion SU victory at Rochester’s Blue Cross , Dec. 3, 2003 before a capacity crowd of 11,650). They last met in 2015, a 79-66 SU victory.
They should play every November or December at a neutral site. Like maybe Rochester?
SHORT SHOTS
Syracuse U.’s gritty football team hosts Wake Forest Saturday, 3 p.m., at the Carrier Dome. The Orange (4-5 record) are favored by only 1 point over the Demon Deacons (5-4) in what could be a must-win situation in their hopes for a bowl bid. If SU quarterback Eric Dungey is completely healthy and effective, I think the Orange will win by at least one touchdown. If he’s hurting and struggles, I believe SU will lose.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano on Friday posted his projections on the starting quarterbacks for the 32 NFL teams for the 2020 season. They include Sam Bradford for the Buffalo Bills, Tyrod Taylor for the Los Angeles Chargers, Josh Rosen for the NY Giants, Sam Darnold for the NY Jets and Tom Brady for the New England Patriots.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Friday, November 10
Teddy Bridgewater (25)...Tony Snell (26)...Eric Thames (31)...Kendrick Perkins (33)...Brian Dinkelman (34)...Chris Canty (35)...Ryback (36)...Donte’ Stallworth (37)...Isaac Bruce (45)...Shawn Green (45...Jamie Dixon (52)...Kenny Rogers (53)...Michael Powell (54)...ESPN’s Linda Cohn (58)...Jack Clark (62)...Bob Stanley (63).
Saturday, November 11
Mark Sanchez (31)...Victor Cruz (31)...Matt Garza (34)...Jason Grilli (43)...Cory Snyder (55)...Steve Foley (64)...Fuzzy Zoeller (66)...Otis Armstrong (67)...LPGA’s Kathy Postlewait (68). Leonardo DiCaprio (43) and Demi Moore (55) are invited to the birthday party.
Sunday, November 12
Trey Burke (25)...Marcell Ozuna (27)...Russell Westbrook (29)...Joe Banyard (29)...Jason Day (30)...Charlie Morton (34)...Lance Briggs (37)...Mark Hunter (45)...Tonya Harding (47)...Sammy Sosa (49)...Nadia Comaneci (56)...Steve Bartkowski (65)...Cliff Harris (69)...Al Michaels (73). Anne Hathaway (35), Ryan Gosling (37) and Neil Young (72) are invited to the birthday party.