BILLS COULD BE ON TOP OF AFC EAST BY 4PM SUNDAY
The Miami Dolphins were crushed 40-0 by host Baltimore Ravens Thursday night in a game that probably won’t do wonders for the NFL’s sagging TV ratings.
The Buffalo Bills are favored by 2 ½ points over visiting Oakland on Sunday.
New England will host the much-improved Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots have lost star linebacker Dont’a Hightower (torn pectoral muscle) and coach Bill Belichick says he is very concerned about the pass rush of the Chargers.
The New York Jets are 5-point underdogs at home to defending NFC champion Atlanta. The disappointing Falcons are due for a top effort.
If everything works out perfectly for Bills fans, the AFC East standings by 4 p.m. Sunday will be:
Buffalo 5-2
New England 5-3
Miami 4-3
Jets 3-5.
UNDEFEATED NITTANY LIONS 6 ½-POINT UNDERDOGS AT OHIO STATE
Saturday’s top college football game should be an extremely entertaining showdown – Penn State at Ohio State.
I’m a bit surprised that the Buckeyes, with a 6-1 record and ranked sixth, are favored by 6 ½ points over the second-ranked and 7-0 Nittany Lions.
They’ve played one common opponent: Ohio State beat host Indiana by 28 (49-21) and Penn State beat visiting Indiana by 31 (45-14).
Ohio State’s only loss was to visiting Oklahoma, 31-16, in the second game of the season. The Buckeyes have won by 28 (at Indiana), 31 (Army), 33 (UNLV), 56 (at Rutgers), 48 (Maryland) and 42 (at Nebraska).
Undefeated Penn State has won by 52 (Akron), 19 (Pittsburgh), 56 (Georgia State), 2 (at Iowa), 31 (Indiana), 24 (at Northwestern) and 29 (Michigan).
It is fair to say that – with the exceptions of Oklahoma and Michigan – neither team has faced a lot of high-quality competition.
Here’s an abbreviated Tale of the Tape (ranking among the 129 FBS teams in parentheses):
Records – Penn State 7-0...Ohio State 6-1
Scoring offense – Penn State 40.0 points per game (16th)...Ohio State 47.3 (2nd)
Scoring defense – Penn State 9.6 points allowed per game (1st)...Ohio State 15.4 (10th)
Point differential – Penn State +30.4 per game...Ohio State +31.9
Total offense – Penn State 463.3 yards per game (27th)...Ohio State 577.3 (3rd)
Total defense – Penn State 282.9 YAPG (9th)...Ohio State 305.3 (16th)
Rush offense – Penn State 173.4 yards per game (54th)...Ohio State 250.6 (18th)
Pass offense – Penn State 289.9 yards per game (25th)...Ohio State 326.7 (12th)
Rush defense – Penn State 115.3 YAPG (17th)...Ohio State 109.6 YAPG (14th)
Yards allowed per rush – Penn State 2.99...Ohio State 2.93
Pass efficiency defense – Penn State 94.02 (1st)...Ohio State 114.90 (33rd)
Turnover differential – Penn State +12 (18/6)...Ohio State +7 (13/6)
Penalties/yards penalized – Penn State 25/196...Ohio State 106/743
Sack differential – Penn State +6 (24/18)...Ohio State +6 (18/12).
Scoring by quarter:
Penn State (opponent) 90-(0)...58-(37)...72-(3)...60-(27)—total 280-(67)
Ohio State (opponent) 74-(14)...114-(24)...91-(42)...52-(28)—total 331-(108).
Versatile Penn State running back Saquon Barkley could become the clear favorite for the Heisman Trophy with a sparkling performance, particularly in a victory. He has 117 carries for 757 yards (6.5-yard average) and 8 TDs; 32 catches for 448 yards (14.0-yard average) and 3 TDs; and 9 kickoff returns for 273 yards (30.3-yard average) and 1 TD.
I thought maybe Penn State would be intimidated by the huge crowd at Ohio State. Probably not. The Nittany Lions also are accustomed to playing before big crowds.
Home attendance for Ohio State home games this fall: 109,088...108,414...106,187...107,180.
Home attendance for Penn State home games this fall: 101,684...109,898...102,746...107,542...110,823.
Bob’s pick: Ohio State 30, Penn State 27.
NFL WEEK 8’s “BEST BET”: FALCONS (-5) OVER THE JETS
The Atlanta Falcons are underachieving and the New York Jets probably are overachieving. That’s why the Jets are favored by a mere 5 points Sunday at MetLife Stadium.
Atlanta figures to be ready to play coming off an embarrassing prime-time 23-7 road loss to New England in a rematch of Super Bowl 51.
The Falcons are 1-10 against the Las Vegas point spread as favorites against AFC opponents. I don’t care. They are playing the Jets, right? The Jets aren’t tanking, but they aren’t likely to hang tough against a disappointing Falcons team coming off three straight losses.
This week’s NFL “Best Bet’: Atlanta 30, NEW YORK JETS (+5) 17.
Sunday’s other games
(home teams in CAPS)
Oakland 28, BUFFALO (-3) 20 – I sure hope I’m wrong but I can’t see the Bills matching points against the Raiders, who’ve had a few extra days to rev up their dangerous pass attack. Buffalo has been outgained in the last five games and that trend likely will continue.
Minnesota 22, CLEVELAND 7 (+9 ½) 17 – This game is in London so stateside Browns fans will be spared the misery of watching Cleveland’s feeble offense try to dent Minnesota’s really good defense. Browns rookie QB DeShone Kizer gets another chance to start and get lifted in the second half.
CINCINNATI (-10) 33, Indianapolis 14 – The only wins for the 2-5 Colts were against Cleveland and San Francisco. Whoopee.
NEW ORLEANS (-9) 28, Chicago 10 – The Saints have a young and aggressive defense for a change and QB Drew Brees figures to take Bears rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky to school.
NEW ENGLAND (-7 ½) 31, Los Angeles Chargers 17 – New England’s defense came alive in last week’s impressive 23-7 home win over Atlanta and the offense is due for a strong performance at Gillette Stadium.
PHILADELPHIA (-12 ½) 24, San Francisco 17 – The Eagles look like the NFC’s best team but the winless 49ers often manage to be competitive with five of their seven losses by a combined 13 points.
TAMPA BAY (-2 ½) 33, Carolina 27 – I was impressed by Tampa Bay’s firepower in the loss at Buffalo and figure the defensively-challenged Buccaneers can win a high-scoring game against the Panthers.
WASHINGTON (-2) 30, Dallas 24 – My hunch is that QB Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Redskins have too much talent not to bounce back from their loss in Philadelphia. Playing at home should be a boost.
SEATTLE (-5 ½) 27, Houston 17 – The Seahawks were my pick to win Super Bowl 52 and I’m liking them better now (three straight wins) than when they started 1-2. Texans rookie Deshaun Watson has looked very good but playing in Seattle is a daunting assignment for any QB.
Pittsburgh 28, DETROIT (+3) 20 – The Lions are desperate for a home win but the Steelers are better. Pittsburgh Le’Veon Bell is back in top form and that’s bad news for Detroit.
Monday night’s game
KANSAS CITY (-7) 24, Denver 14 – I can’t see the Chiefs losing a third straight game after their 5-0 start. Denver’s defense is legitimately good but it doesn’t play a team like Kansas City every week.
THESE RHINOS MIGHT PLAY ANOTHER HOME GAME
The Rochester Rhinos have a chance to host the United Soccer League Eastern Conference Final. All that needs to happen in Saturday’s conference semifinals:
The Rhinos upset #1 seed Louisville City FC Saturday evening at Louisville Slugger Field...and the #7 seed New York Red Bulls II upset the host #3 seed Tampa Bay Rowdies.
The New York Red Bulls II already shocked the #2 seed Charleston Battery 4-0 in the first round.
A Red Bulls at Rhinos conference championship match would be Saturday, November 4, at Capelli Sport Stadium.
In their two regular-season meetings, Louisville won 2-1 on a late penalty kick at home September 20, and the teams battled to a 0-0 draw in Rochester September 30.
Regular-season records: Louisville City 18 wins, 7 losses, 8 draws, +27 goal differential...Rochester 14-7-11, +8 goal differential...Tampa Bay 14-7-11, +15...New York Red Bulls II 13-14-5, -3 goal differential.
There is nothing fishy about the four Eastern Conference playoff survivors as far as average home attendance for the 2017 regular season is concerned: Louisville 8,613 (ranked 3rd in the 30-team USL)...Tampa Bay 5,894 (7th)...Rochester 2.031 (22nd)...New York Red Bulls II 632 (30th).
CODY BELLINGER PROBABLY REMEMBERS NOTHING ABOUT ROCHESTER
Clay Bellinger, the father of Los Angeles Dodgers rookie star first baseman Cody Bellinger, was an infielder for the Rochester Red Wings in 1996. It was the team’s final year at Silver Stadium on 500 North Street and he had a fine season: 125 games; .301 batting average (138-for-459); 68 runs; 34 doubles; 4 triples; 15 HRs; 78 RBI; 8 stolen bases; .838 OPS. He appeared in 55 games at shortstop, 42 games at first base and 25 games at second base.
Cody was born July 13, 1995, in Scottsdale, Arizona. I assume he celebrated his first birthday in Rochester but probably doesn’t remember anything about his dad’s one and only season as a Red Wing.
NHL ATTENDANCE UPDATE
The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday ranked 17th among 31 NFL teams in average home attendance (68,725 for three games), 22nd in percent capacity for home games (94 percent) and 24th in average road attendance (65.920 for three games.
The top three average home attendance: Dallas 92,973 (3 games); Green Bay 78,361 (4 games) and New York Giants 77,634 (3 games).
The lowest listed average home attendance is Cincinnati’s 53,521 (3 games).
The NFL attendance has no average home crowd for the Los Angeles Rams, who play in a made-for-soccer stadium that seats around 30,000 and hasn’t been nearly filled for a home game yet.
COULD LAMAR JACKSON REPEAT AS HEISMAN TROPHY WINNER?
Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson last year became the youngest player to win the Heisman Trophy. Might he join Ohio State’s Archie Griffin (1974 and 1975) as the only repeat and multiple Heisman winner?
Not likely, mainly because his team has regressed this season (from 9-4 in 2016 to 5-3 so far this season).
His individual statistics have held up pretty well:
2016 Passing – 230-for-409 (.562) for 3,543 yards; 272.5 yards per game; 30 TD passes; 9 INTs.
2017 passing – 170-for-282 (.603) for 2,478 yards; 309.8 yards per game; 17 TD passes; 5 INTs.
2016 Rushing – 260 for 1,571 yards; 120.8 yards per game; 6.0 yards per carry; 21 TDs.
2017 Rushing – 136 for 868 yards; 108.5 yards per game; 6.4 yards per carry; 11 TDs.
NO SHOCKER IN FINAL STAKES RACE OF 2017 AT FINGER LAKES
You probably didn’t notice that the final stakes race of the 2017 live thoroughbred season at Finger Lakes Gaming and Racetrack was run on Monday. It was the $50,000 Shesastonecoldfox Stakes for two-year-old fillies foaled in New York and the result was not exactly a shock.
Runaway leading jockey John R. Davila Jr., rode Indy’s Lady to victory for leading trainer Jeremiah Englehart, who saddled five horses in the 13-horse field. Indy’s Lady returned $12.80 to win. She was coming off a disappointing finish in the New York Breeders Futurity Stakes September 17, when she set the pace before fading to sixth and last as the 1.85-to-1 favorite.
Davila, 53 years young, incredibly skilled and fit, and still going strong, had a commanding lead in the jockey standings entering Wednesday: 160 wins to second-place Joshua Navarro’s 81 and Luis Perez’s 79. No other rider had more than 55 wins. This will be his 14th riding title at Finger Lakes.
Jeremiah Englehart and his father, Chris Englehart, are one-two for leading trainer: 117 wins to 95 wins, entering Wednesday. No other conditioner had more than 43 wins. It would be Jeremiah’s second FL trainer title. Chris has 15 FL titles.
SOME NFL NUMBERS ENTERING WEEK 8
Home teams are 55-51 outright and 50-52-4 against the Las Vegas point spread (ATS).
Las Vegas favorites are 62-44 outright and 45-37-4 ATS.
Teams scoring first are 74-32.
Teams leading at halftime are 75-19.
Teams leading after the third quarter are 85-14.
Teams winning the turnover battle are 61-13.
Teams entering the game with the better record are 56-20.
Teams with the most rushing yards are 69-34.
Teams with the most passing yards are 58-45.
Teams leading in time of possession are 80-26.
Of the 106 games, 24 were decided by 7 points or less and 37 were decided by 3 points or less.
The NFC leads the AFC 14-13 in interconference play.
There have been 7 overtime games and 5 shutouts (including 3 last week).
There have been 4,438 points in 106 games; 43.8 points per game.
Teams with 100-yard rushers are 32-4 in those games.
SHORT SHOTS
The Buffalo Bills are alone on top of the NFL Las Vegas Point Spread Standings with a 4-1-1 record, followed by Kansas City, Philadelphia and Chicago at 5-2. Surprisingly, San Francisco (0-7 in real life) has a better record against the spread (4-3) than New England (3-4). Arizona is worst at 1-6 against the spread.
Batavia Downs notebook: Entering Friday night, 45.59 percentage of winning post-time favorites(253 out of 555)...155 winners from post position #1 out of 555 races (29.9 percent). Congratulations if you picked a winner from postposition #8: 7 wins out of 243 races (2.9 percent)...74.0 percent of winners from post positions #1 through #4 (27.9; 15.3; 13.7; 17.1)...Tight race for leading driver: Drew Monti 85 wins, Larry Stalbaum 83 and Ray Fisher Jr. 81.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO:
Friday, October 27
Lonzo Ball (20)...Rasmus Ristolainen (23)...Colton Schmidt (27)...Ruben Tejada (28)...Evan Turner (29)...Andrew Bynum (30)...Brady Quinn (33)...Martin Prado (34)...Peerless Price (41)...Brad Radke (45)...Mike Ricci (46)...Lou Williams (31)...Eric Bell (54)...Tom Nietro (57)...a former LPGA Queen of Locust Hill Patty Sheehan (61).
Saturday, October 28
Jack Eichel (21)...Jarrett Jack (34)...Calvin Pace (37)...Terrell Davis (45)...Steve Atwater (51)...Benoit Hogue (51)...Mark Carrier (52)...Kevin Dineen (54)...Bob Melvin (56)...Randy Wittman (58)..Sammy Stewart (63)...Caitlyn Jenner (68)...Lenny Wilkens (80). Brad Paisley (45), Julia Roberts (50) and Bill Gates (62) are invited to the birthday party. Gates can pick up the tab.
Sunday, October 29
Ender Inciarte (27)...Andy Dalton (30)...Wayne Ellington (30)...Eric Staal (33)...B. J. Sams (37)...Travis Henry (39)...R.A. Dickey (43)...Johan Olav Koss (49)...Mike Gartner (58)...Jessie Barfield (58)...Denis Potvin (64)...Paul “Mr. Wonderful” Orndorff (68). Gabrielle Union (45) and Winona Ryder (46) are invited to the birthday party.