BOB’S ALCS/NLCS PICKS: ASTROS AND DODGERS HEADED TO WORLD SERIES
Are you ready for some great baseball?
Here are my picks for the best-of-seven American League Championship Series (Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees starting Friday) and the National League Championship Series (Los Angeles Dodges vs. the defending champion Chicago Cubs starting Saturday):
American League – I believe Houston (101-61 record in the regular season; +196 run differential; 4.13 ERA) is baseball’s best team. The Astros certainly have the best top-to-bottom lineup, featuring one of the all-time great young second baseman/shortstop combinations in soon-to-be 2017 AL MVP Jose Altuve and future AL MVP Carlos Correa...Led the 10 post-season teams in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage). Second to the Yankees in home runs (2340 to 238)...4.13 ERA ranked last among the 10 teams in the postseason but the team’s offense usually overcomes any pitching deficiencies.
The Yankees (91-71; +198 run differential; 3.73 ERA) aren’t quite as potent offensively as Houston, but they have the edge in starting pitching and a bigger advantage in the bullpen. It is one of the deepest and most overpowering in baseball history. That counts a lot. New York rallied to upset Cleveland in the ALDS despite the cold bats of Aaron Judge (1-for-20 with 16 Ks) and the designated hitters (0-for-16). They’d need to contribute more to win this series...They need to win at least one game in Houston. The Astros were 88-33 at home and the Yankees were 40-41 on the road.
National League – The Los Angeles Dodgers (104-58; +190 run differential; 3.39 ERA) looked like one of the all-time great teams until they suffered through a mystifying 1-16 slump. They righted the ship in September and swept Arizona in the NLDS...Not a terrific offensive team. Ranked near the bottom of the 10 post-season teams in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. But they collectively hit well in the clutch and have a deep bench...The big question mark is Yasiel Puig. Will he be a hero or a zero?...A better pitching staff than the Cubs, led by Clayton Kershaw and lights-out closer Kenley Jansen. My hunch is that Kershaw will erase some of his reputation as a poor post-season pitcher...The Dodgers are terrific at home (57-24).
The Cubs (92-70; +127 run differential; 3.95 ERA; .212 opposing batting average) haven’t played up to their awesome 2016 standards (103-58; +252 run differential; 3.45 ERA; .238 opposing batting average) but they’re still a solid and confident team. Outlasted the tough Washington Nationals in the NLDS...Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant and super tough hitters but there are a few soft spots in the lineup...Starting pitching hasn’t been consistently sharp and the bullpen is slightly better than ordinary....These Cubs are live underdogs and fully capable of going all the way.
Bob’s picks: Houston in 6 games over the Yankees...Dodgers in 7 games over the Cubs.
CAN SYRACUSE U. UPSET SECOND-RANKED CLEMSON?
The Syracuse Orange football team takes on the second-ranked Clemson Tigers Friday night, 7 p.m., at the Carrier Dome.
The Tigers are favored by 22 ½ points but SU has a recent habit of hanging tough against higher-ranked opponents.
Here’s the Tale of the Tape (rank among the 129 FBS schools in parentheses):
Records – Clemson 6-0...SU 3-3
Scoring offense – Clemson 35.0 per game (t39th)...SU 32.0 (t53rd)
Scoring defense – Clemson 11.3 per game (5th)...SU 24.3 (54th)
Total offense – Clemson 471.0 YPG (t25th)...SU 466.8 YPG (32nd)
Total defense – Clemson 263.3 YAPG (8th)...SU 357.7 YAPG (46th)
First downs by – Clemson 1243 (t11th)...SU 147 (9th)
Fewest first downs allowed – Clemson 84 (t17th)...SU 113 (t72nd)
Rushing offense – Clemson 237.3 YPG (20th)...SU 141.8 (86th)
Passing offense – Clemson 233.7 (t64th)...SU 325.0 YPG (13th)
Pass defense efficiency – Clemson 105.18 (13th)...SU 125.47 (64th)
Sacks by per game – 3.67 (5th)...SU 1.00 (t113th)
Fewest sacks allowed per game – 2.33 (t87th)...2.50 (t94th)
Tackles for loss per game – Clemson 7.8 (t14th)...SU 5.8 (t72nd)
Turnover margin – Clemson -1 (t72nd; 6t/7g)...SU -1 (t72nd; 8t/9g).
Bob’s pick: I think SU’s passing attack can annoy Clemson enough to score at least two TDs, but the big mismatch figures to be Clemson’s offense vs. SU’s defense. I figure the Tigers will win going away, 45-17.
SU’S DUNGEY-TO-ISHMAEL ONE OF NATION’S BEST QB-WR DUOS
Syracuse University’s Eric Dungey-to-Steve Ishmael is one of college football’s most productive duos.
Ishmael leads the 129-team FBS in receiving yards (729) and receptions per game (9.3). He ranks third in receiving yards per game (121.5). Teammate Ervin Philips is ranked fourth in receptions per game (8.7) and 31st in receiving yards (475).
Dungey ranks 8th in yards passing (1,802) and 14th in yards passing per game (300.3).
Last season’s SU star receiver Amba Etta-Tawo (94 catches/1,482 yards/14 TD catches) has signed with the Kansas City Chiefs practice squad.
THE SERVICE ACADEMIES ARE GREAT AT RUNNING THE FOOTBALL
I’m always interested in how well the three major service academies run the football.
I suppose they excel on the ground because it is easier to teach a running attack than a passing game, there tend to be fewer great athletes at the academies and they probably have less time to practice. I’m only guessing. If you have other theories, let me know.
Here’s how the three academies rank among the 129 NCAA FBS football schools in rushing offense:
1-Navy. 4142 yards rushing per game (6.53 yards per carry; 20 rushing TDs)
3-Army. 372.7 yards rushing per game (6.30 yards per carry; 24 rushing TDs)
9-Air Force – 287.8 yards rushing per game (4.89 yards per carry; 16 rushing TDs).
Isn’t it ironic that Navy and Air Force are better on the ground than in the air?
HOW THE KC CHIEFS HIT THE DRAFT TRIFECTA
The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team (5-0) and three big reasons are Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. They’re probably the best running back/wide receiver/tight end trio in the league and they all were bargain picks in the college draft.
Hunt – 97 carries for an NFL-most 609 yards rushing; 6.3 yards per carry; 4 TDs plus 16 catches for 166 yards and 2 TDs. He was the 86th overall pick in the 2017 college draft over Toledo.
Buffalo’s picks before KC selected Hunt No. 86 were CB Tre’Davious White 27th, WR Zay Jones 37th and OG Dion Dawkins 63rd.
Hill – 25 catches for 356 yards; 14.2 yards per catch; 2 TDs. He was the 165th pick in the 2016 college draft out of West Alabama.
Buffalo’s picks before KC selected Hill No. 165 were DE Shaq Lawson 19th, LB Reggie Ragland 41st, DT Adolphus Washington 80th, QB Cardale Jones 139th and RB Jonathan Williams 156th.
Kelce – 29 catches for 353 yards; 12.2 yards per catch; 2 TDs. He was the 63rd overall pick in the 2013 college draft out of Cincinnati.
Buffalo’s picks before KC selected Kelce No. 63 were QB EJ Manuel 16th, WR Robert Woods 41st and LB Kiko Alonso 46th.
Quarterback Alex Smith was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 college draft out of Utah and – finally – critics aren’t saying the Chiefs made a big mistake.
WEEK 6 NFL “BEST BETS”
Is there a better quarterback in the NFL today than Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers? With the exception of the remarkable Tom Brady at the ripe young age of 40, is it even close?
Rodgers and his Packers roll into Minnesota on Sunday and catch the Vikings at the right time – QB Sam Bradford is hurt again and rookie star running back Dalvin Cook (knee) is out for the season.
Rodgers shouldn’t need any of his customary late-game heroics in this spot. This week’s “Best Bet”: Green Bay 28, MINNESOTA (+3) 17.
‘Sunday’s other games
(home team in CAPS)
Chicago 24, BALTIMORE (-6 ½) 20 – Bears rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky showed me enough in his first NFL start last week to make me think he can outplay struggling Ravens QB Joe Flacco.
HOUSTON (-9 ½) 30, Cleveland 14 – Sure, the Texans are going to miss injured defensive stars J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, but the offense is healthy and rookie QB Deshaun Watson should have fun afternoon.
NEW ORLEANS 31 (-4 ½), Detroit 30 -- I like Matthew Stafford with the 4 ½-point spot and the Saints are due for a few giveaways.
ATLANTA (-11 ½) 40, Miami 13 – The high-flying Falcons had their bye week to recover from a surprising home loss to the Bills. The Dolphins are 0-13 outright and against the Las Vegas point spread (ATS) between home games.
New England 33, NEW YORK JETS (+9 ½) 14 – Both teams are 3-2 but the Patriots have a huge advantage in firepower. Warning: the Jets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
WASHINGTON (-10) 24, San Francisco 20 – The Redskins should win but the 49ers lost their last four games by 3, 2, 3 and 3 points and should hang tough in this game.
Tampa Bay 30, ARIZONA (+2) 24 – The Buccaneers appear to be a team on the rise with QB Jameis Winston and the Cardinals with QB Carson Palmer appear to have seen better days.
JACKSONVILLE (-2 ½) 24, Los Angeles Rams 24 – This should be an entertaining game. The Rams have the firepower but I’m going with the better defense + rookie RB Leonard Fournette.
KANSAS CITY (-4) 28, Pittsburgh 17 – The undefeated Chiefs look legitimate to me. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger isn’t washed-up yet but he’d need a super performance to pull off an upset here.
OAKLAND (-3) 31, Los Angeles Chargers 30 – The Raiders are 3-19 ATS as home favorite vs. teams with a losing record. The Chargers are 1-4 and EJ Manuel could start at QB again for Oakland as Derek Carr is recovering from a back injury.
DENVER (-11 ½) 27, New York Giants 7 – This appears to be a horrible spot for the punchless 0-5 Giants. They’ll be minus star WR Odell Beckham Jr. (broken ankle) vs. one of the NFL’s best defenses.
Monday night’s game
TENNESSEE (NL) 23, Indianapolis 15 – The difference should be Titans RB DeMarco Murray vs. a suspect rush defense.
SHORT SHOTS
The last time Syracuse U. football beat a team in The Associated Press Top 10 was 50-42 in triple-overtime over visiting No. 7 Virginia Tech Nov. 9, 2002 (from Chris Carlson of The Post-Standard of Syracuse).
Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White is No. 2 in this week’s Pro Football Focus Rookie Rankings, behind only Kansas City running back Deshaun Watson.
The 31st team in the American Hockey League will be the expansion Colorado Eagles, based in Loveland, Colo. The city has a population of 72,651 and is 46 miles from Denver. The Eagles will be the primary affiliate of the NHL Colorado Avalanche. The AHL San Antonio Rampage will continue to be affiliated with the Avalanche this season and hook up with St. Louis Blues for the 2018-19 season.
Major League Lacrosse two-time All-Star midfielder Kyle Denhoff has left the Rochester Rattlers in favor of the Boston Cannons. The Penfield and St. John Fisher product applied for Major League Lacrosse Player Movement after his fifth season with the Rattlers. He moved to Boston in 2015. Rochester will receive a fifth-round draft pick as compensation.
Ronald Blum of The Associated Press described the U.S. men’s national soccer loss to Trinidad and Tobago Tuesday night as “American soccer’s Waterloo” and called for sweeping changes in the U.S. Soccer Federation.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Friday, October 13
Norris Cole (29)...Brian Hoyer (32)...Ian Thorpe (35)...Jermaine O’Neal (39)...Paul Pierce (40)...Brian Dawkins (44)...Sean O’Donnell (46)...Trevor Hoffman (50)...Jerry Rice (55)...Doc Rivers (56)...Derek Harper (56)...Reggie Theus (60)...Jeff Nixon (61)...Pat Day (64)...Jerry Jones (75). Tiffany Trump (24), Sasha Baron Cohen (46), Marie Osmond (58) and Paul Simon (76) are invited to the birthday party.
Saturday, October 14
Jared Goff (23)...Kole Calhoun (30)...Wesley Matthews (31)...Justin Forsett (32)...ex-Red Wing Boof Bonser (36)...Terrence McGee (37)...Floyd Landis (42)...Frank Wycheck (46)...NBA’s Jim Jackson (47)...P J Brown (48)...Stephen A. Smith (50)...Joe Girardi (53)...Keith Byars (54)...Beth Daniel (61)...former Red Wing Kiko Garcia (64)...Dave Schultz (68)...Bob Kuechenberg (70)...Al Oliver (71).
Sunday, October 15
Blaine Gabbert (28)...Arron Afflalo (32)...Josh Rabe (39)...Fred Hoiberg (45)...Glenn Gulliver (63)...Joe Klecko (64)...Roscoe Tanner (66)...Jim Palmer (72)...Willie O’Ree (82). Penny Marshall (74) is invited to the birthday party.