McCRACKEN IS BOB’S KENTUCKY DERBY PICK
The post-time favorite has won the last four runnings of the Kentucky Derby: 2013 Orb $12.80 for a $2 bet...2014 California Chrome $7...2015 American Pharoah $7.80...2016 Nyquist $6.60.
That hadn’t happened since 1972 Riva Ridge...1973 Secretariat...1974 Cannonade...1975 Foolish Pleasure.
I believe the current streak will end on Saturday. I don’t see a worthy prohibitive favorite in Saturday’s 20-horse field for the 143rd Run for the Roses.
Here is my projected worst-to-first rundown in what shapes up as a competitive race without an obvious superstar or Triple Crown threat:
20th – Fast and Accurate (post position 3). Connections paid $200,000 to make him a supplemental addition to this field. That probably was a waste of money. Expected to gun for the lead and fade when the serious running starts. Skier Bodie Miller is a part-owner of this grey Pennsylvania-bred colt. He could be skiing uphill against this competition.
19th – Sonneteer (post position 12). Winless in his 10 starts and was favored only once...Career highlights were rallying to finish second at odds of 112-to-1 in the Rebel Stakes and a close fourth in the Arkansas Derby at 12.20-to-1...Sire Midnight Luke is the only two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint but this colt has done his best running late. It probably won’t matter against this field.
18th –Thunder Snow (post position 2). This Irish-bred colt won Grade 2 and Grade 3 races in Dubai early this year. Would be a big surprise if he hits the board.
17th – Untrapped (post position 4). One win and three seconds in six career starts. This colt always tries but isn’t likely to stay for 1 ¼ miles in the Derby.
16th – Battle of Midway (post position 11) – Unraced as a two-year-old. Only four career starts but two were victories...Earned his trip to the Derby with a second in the Santa Anita Derby April 8. He set the pace and was caught late by the more experienced Gormley.
15th – Patch (post position 20). As if drawing the extreme outside post were not enough of a challenge, this colt had his left eye removed before he began racing...Owned and bred by historic Calumet Farm...Unraced as a two-year old...One win in three-race career. Highlight was second in the Louisiana Derby, 1 ¼ lengths behind Girvin. Has some speed and talent but probably is overmatched for this assignment.
14th – State of Honor (post position 6). Bred in Ontario, Canada and began his racing career with six starts at Woodbine outside Toronto...Broke his maiden in his fourth race. It was his only win in 10 career starts...Seconds in the Tampa Bay Derby and Florida Derby...Tempting at long odds and always tries but staying for 1 ¼ miles is asking a lot.
13th – Girvin (post position 7). All four of his races were at the Fair Grounds Race Course, including two impressive Grade 2 wins: the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby. Settled just off the pace and rallied to win both...Sire was best at a mile so stamina is a question mark.
12th – Lookin at Lee (post position 1). Drew the dreaded inside post position....He was a fast-closing third behind Empire Classic in the Arkansas Derby...He has a solid late kick and might surprise with a good trip...His sire, Lookin At Lucky, also drew the rail in the 2010 Derby. He had a troubled start as the 6-to-1 favorite and finished sixth.
11th – Tapwrit (post position 16). A $1.2 million purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga selected yearling sale...Finished last in a 10-horse field in his racing debut at Saratoga last summer...Shipped to Florida and form exploded. Second to then-undefeated McCracken in the Sam F. Davis and romped in the Tampa Bay Derby...Disappointing fifth in the Bluegrass Stakes, 11 ½ lengths behind winner Irap...Was that a throw-out effort or has he gone stale? We’ll find out Saturday.
10th – Gormley (post position 18). Tough colt to gauge. Had excellent record in California before a rough start and four-wide trip to finish seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 5.20-to-1...Is he a homer? All six career starts in California including victory in the Santa Anita Derby April 18...Can’t throw him out.
9th – Practical Joke (post position 19) – The main knock on this hard-trying colt is questions about his stamina. In six starts, he has one third, two seconds and three wins – but none were beyond one mile...Second to Irap in the Blue Grass Stakes...The laughs could be on bettors who ignore him.
8th – Irap (post position 9). His only win in eight starts was the Blue Grass Stakes April 8 at odds of 33-to-1. Beat a top field including McCracken, Practical Joke and Tapwrit...Is this son of Tiznow a one-hit wonder or a budding star? I have no idea.
7th – Hence (post position 8). Came from far off the pace to win the Sunland Derby at odds of 10.80-to-1...Was that a fluke?...Has the pedigree and stamina to like the 1 ¼-mile Derby distance...Has worked well for this tough test...Worth a look and could pad the exotic bets. ..Trainer Steven Asmussen is 0-for-15 in the Derby and also will saddle Hence and Untrapped.
6th – J Boys Echo (post position 13). Bred for the classic Derby 1 ¼-mile distance. But is he good enough to win the Derby?...Third in the Withers in his three-year-old debut and then won the Gotham at Aqueduct March 17 in impressive fashion...A respectable fourth despite a troubled start in the Blue Grass Stakes April 8 at odds of 5.30-to-1...Can’t dismiss his chances.
5th – Gunnevera (post position 10) – Rags to riches? He was a $16,000 pre-racing purchase.....Won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and ran second in the Holy Bull behind Irish War Cry...Went off the 1.10-to-1 favorite in the Florida Derby. He broke awkwardly and did some late running to finish third...Top jockey Javier Castellano has the mount so I suspect this colt is primed for a top effort.
4th – Irish War Cry (post position 17). This hard-hitting New Jersey-bred has four wins in five starts...His only defeat was a seventh-place finish in the Fountain of Youth March 4 at Gulfstream, 21 lengths behind Gunnevera. Trainer Graham H. Motion second-guessed himself for running so quickly after the Holy Bull...Bounced back nicely with a victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct April 8...Only horse in the Derby with two triple-digit Beyer speed figures...Definite threat on best effort.
SHOW – Always Dreaming (post position 5). Three-for-three this year after second and third in 2016. Scored maiden victory by 11 ½ lengths at Tampa Bay Downs Jan. 25 and then won the Florida Derby by 5 lengths at odds of 2.70-to-1...Can run slightly off the pace and make a late bid...Top connections in trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez.
PLACE – Classic Empire (post position 14). The horse to beat and the likely favorite. Finished 10th and last in his debut at Saratoga Sept. 5, 2016. He wheeled at the start and tossed his jockey as the favorite...Bounced back to win the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The only horses to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby were Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016)... Only poor race as a three-year-old was a distant third in the Holy Bull Stakes Feb. 4. A valid excuse was a foot abscess discovered after the race...Coming off an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby April 15...Runs from slightly off the pace...Stamina to stay for 1 ¼ mile is somewhat suspect.
WIN – McCracken (post position 15). He won his first four races before suffering a minor ankle injury that knocked him out of the Tampa Bay Derby. He returned from a long layoff to finish a respectable third as the favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes April 8... I believe the Blue Grass was a perfect prep for the Kentucky Derby...He has the pedigree and running style to settle off the speed in the second tier and finish strongly to win at decent odds.
CANELO THE PICK IN BOXING’S “MEXICAN SUPER BOWL”
HBO expects huge pay-per-view buys for Saturday night’s showdown between super middleweights Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1 with 34 K0s) and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1 with 32 K0s) at a sold-out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
This fight is being called boxing’s “Mexican Super Bowl.” Alvarez and Chavez genuinely dislike each other. Alvarez, arguably the hottest attraction in the sport today, believes Chavez is lazy and riding his legendary father’s legacy. Chavez is saying his father – not Alvarez -- will always be the most popular Mexican fighter.
The fight is at the catchweight of 164.5 pounds. Chavez is the larger fighter and supposedly will be fined $1 million for every pound he enters the ring above that weight. Some people have speculated that Chavez might be willing to accept the fine in return for enjoying a significant weight advantage in the fight.
Caesars Palace odds: Canelo Alvarez -600 (bet $600 to win $100)...Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. +450 (bet $100 to win $450).
Many neutral boxing fans figure to be rooting for Alvarez. If he wins, his next fight is expected to be against unified middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin. It would be the sort of can’t-miss matchup we seldom see in modern boxing.
CULVER AND BOSTICK MAKING NOISE IN INTERNATIONAL LEAGUE
Infielders Cito Culver (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders via Irondequoit) and Chris Bostick (Indianapolis Indians via Aquinas Institute) are trying to hit their way from the International League to the major leagues. Both are 24 years old and keeping their MLB dreams alive.
Culver was the first-round pick (No. 32 overall) of the New York Yankees in the 2010 MLB entry draft and signed for $954,000. Bostick was the 1,336th overall pick in the 2011 draft by Oakland and signed for $125,000.
Culver has struggled at the plate for most of his eight-year pro career but the Yankees clearly have not given up on him. They like his defense and attitude and he’s currently seeing steady duty as Scranton/Wilkes Barre’s utility infielder. He has started multiple times at all four infield spots this season.
Cito entered Thursday night with 3 HRs and 6 RBI in his first two games in May, including 2 HRs Wednesday night in a 13-0 romp over Lehigh Valley. He’s batting .265 (13-for-49) with 3 doubles, 5 HRs and 10 RBI in 15 games this season.
Scranton/Wilkes Barre visits the Red Wings June 5-6-7.
Bostick is playing second base every game for Indianapolis and is off to a terrific start. Through 23 games, he was hitting .333 (31-for-93) with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HRs and 11 RBI. He had a 15-game hitting streak entering Thursday. Pittsburgh is his fourth organization (Oakland to Texas to Washington to the Pirates).
Indianapolis plays at Rochester May 26-27-28-29.
ESPN’S “WAY-TOO-EARLY” 2018 FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICKS
Remember when the NFL college draft wasn’t a big deal? Now it is such a big deal that ESPN’s Todd McShay already has posted his “Way-Too-Early” 2018 first round picks.
His first three picks all are quarterbacks: No. 1 Sam Darnold (USC) to Cleveland...No. 2 Josh Allen (Wyoming) to San Francisco...No. 3 Josh Rosen (UCLA) to the New York Jets.
Buffalo’s projected two first-round picks: No. 8 safety Derwin James (Florida State)...No. 22 defensive end Tyquan Lewis (Ohio State).
SHORT SHOTS
San Antonio point guard Tony Parker’s NBA career could be over after suffering a season-ending knee injury this week. He’ll turn 35 May 17. Is he a future Basketball Hall of Famer? I’d vote for him: four-time NBA champion; 16.2 point average in 1,143 regular-season games; 18.2-point average in 213 playoff games.
ESPN’s Todd McShay ranked Buffalo’s 2017 NFL college draft his “fifth favorite” of the 32 teams, behind New England, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Denver.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO...
Friday May 5 – Mitch Marner (20)...Andrew Peters (37)...Muhsin Muhammad (44)...Ziggy Palffy (45)...LaPhonso Ellis (47)...Hideki Irabu (48)...Willy Lindstrom (66)...Bob Babich (70)...Heisman Trophy winner Terry Baker (76). Hannah Jeter (27), Adele (29) and Brian Williams (58) are invited to the birthday party.
Saturday May 6 –Jonas Valanciunas (25)... Jose Altuve (27)...Geraldo Parra (30)...Goran Dragic (31)...Chris Paul (32)...Jason Witten (35)...Martin Brodeur (45)...Willie Mays (86). George Clooney (56) and Bob Seger (72) are invited to the birthday party.
Sunday May 7 – Chad Ruhwedel (27)...Sydney Leroux (27)...Earl Thomas (28)...Alex Smith (33)...James Loney (33)...WWE’s Kevin Steen, ring name Kevin Owens (33)...Tim Connolly (36)...Shawn Marion (39)...John Holecek (45)...Ronnie Harmon (55)...Tex Cobb (67).