BOB’S 2017 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FORECAST
The Chicago Cubs won the 1908 World Series and then waited 108 years to win their next one.
The Cubs won the 2016 World Series and they look repeaters to me.
I believe the Cubs will lead Major League Baseball with at least 100 victories in the regular season and then beat the Boston Red Sox for their second straight world championship.
Here are my predictions by division:
AL EAST (baseball’s beat division)
1-Boston 90-72 record
23-Toronto 86-76
3-New York Yankees 84-78
4-Baltimore 82-80
5-Tampa Bay 73-89.
The Red Sox will miss the power and leadership of retired David Ortiz (.315; 38 HRs; 127 RBI; 1.021 OPS), but they have a solid lineup top-to-bottom, solid defense, a top-shelf starting rotation (assuming David Price can answer the bell) and a decent bullpen. I love Dustin Pedroia as the team’s new leader…The Blue Jays might have baseball’s most underrated starting rotation (Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano). It should help offset the loss of slugger Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland…A much-improved heart of the lineup (Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday and Greg Bird), the underrated DP duo of Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, ace starter Masahiro Tanaka and Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances in the bullpen should help the Yankees post their 25th consecutive winning season and there are more talented young players on the way up, but back end of the rotation figures to cost New York a playoff berth…The Orioles will continue to hit HRs and closer Zach Britton’s sinker is baseball’s most-unhittable pitch, but the entire starting rotation is a huge question mark and this is the slowest team in MLB…Tampa Bay is a weak-hitting club and has a terrible bullpen.
AL CENTRAL (the Indians are in the right division at the right time)
1-Cleveland 97-65 record
2-Kansas City 82-80
3-Detroit 81-81
4-Minnesota 75-87
5-Chicago White Sox 65-97.
The Indians are by far the best team in this division. Excellent pitching with a five-man starting rotation headed by Corey Kluber and a deep bullpen anchored by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Import Edwin Encarnacion was the perfect addition to an already strong offense. A comeback by Michael Brantley (shoulder) would be a bonus. Francisco Lindor could become a superstar shortstop…I could be underestimating Kansas City, but I think they’re due to slip. Eric Hosmer needs more help offensively, late starter Yordano Ventura will be missed and the bullpen no longer is lights out…Detroit is an aging team with a few very good hitters (Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler), a lousy outfield and suspect depth in the rotation behind Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer…Minnesota started 0-9 last season and never recovered. The starting rotation still stinks, but there is plenty of young talent elsewhere – particularly in the outfield – and the Twins might be a mild surprise…The White Sox are almost as bad as the Cubs are good. The Chisox have some power (Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier) but not much else to get excited about. Some good live arms are a year or two away.
AL WEST (it could be a dandy three-team battle)
1-Houston 92-70 record
2-Seattle 90-72
3-Texas 88-74
4-Los Angeles Angels
5-Oakland 65-97.
Houston added Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick and Brian McCann to an impressive lineup including holdovers Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer. The starting rotation isn’t awesome but it might not have to be. Luke Gregerson and Ken Giles are a solid 1-2 punch in the bullpen…Is this the year Seattle puts it all together? Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager will supply plenty of runs. Mike Zunino adds punch at catcher. Felix Hernandez and closer Edwin Diaz are the top pitchers on an ordinary staff…Texas has a terrific 1-2 starting punch in Cole Hamels and a healthy Yu Darvish. The offense could be awesome if guys like Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara and Jurickson Profar all come through to complement Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli and Jonathan Lucroy…The Angels have a good-looking lineup card with Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, but Pujols can’t run and their supporting cast is not impressive. How much longer can Trout take this losing?...Oakland has underrated pitching depth but the latest batch of retreads (including Trevor Plouffe, Rajai Davis and Jed Lowrie) isn’t going to do much for a lousy offense.
NL EAST (strictly a two-team race)
1-Washington 92-70 record
2-New York Mets 89-73
3-Atlanta 77-85
4-Miami 76-86
5-Philadelphia 70-92
Shoulder woes plagued Nationals slugger Harper last season and he figures to return to MVP-type form. Trea Trea Turner is a rare mix of power and speed at shortstop. Adam Easton and Matt Wieters were plus additions. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark are a sparkling trio of starting pitchers. Closer could be an issue…The big if for the Mets is the health of their young starting rotation. Most of them have had issues. Old reliable Bartolo Colon will be missed. Yoenis Cespedes anchors a mostly underrated lineup. Could use an upgrade at catcher (Travis D’Arnaud)…The Braves will be much improved and watchable in their new stadium. The lineup could be surprisingly productive (featuring Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp) and ancient starting pitchers Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey will eat innings until a bunch of talented young arms are ready…The tragic death of pitching ace Jose Fernandez figures to derail any playoff hopes for the Marlins. They’ll score plenty of runs with Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Martin Pardo and Dee Gordon but opponents will score even more runs more often than not…The Phillies have somepromising young position players but aren’t ready to flirt with a .500 record.
NL CENTRAL (the race is for second place and a wild-card berth)
1-Chicago Cubs 100-62
2-St. Louis 86-76
3-Pittsburgh 83-79
4-Milwaukee 72-90
5-Cincinnati 65-97
The Cubs are the defending world champions and should be even better this season with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber all likely to improve. The veteran starting rotation doesn’t need to be great and Wade Davis and Hector Rondon look good at the back of the bullpen…The Cardinals might earn a wild-card berth but no longer can seriously threaten the Cubs. New center fielder Dexter Fowler will improve the defense and add speed to a slowpoke lineup. Matt Holliday’s bat and presence will be missed…I like Pittsburgh’s outfield (Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen) but not much else…Milwaukee has Ryan Braun, a promising middle infield (Jonathan Villar and Orlando Arcia) and lots of great beer…Cincinnati is a great baseball city that deserves a better team. Joey Votto is wasting away.
NL WEST (you often get what you pay for)
1-Los Angeles Dodgers 94-68
2-San Francisco 86-76
3-Colorado 81-81
4-Arizona 78-84
5-San Diego 60-102
The Dodgers have baseball’s top player payroll and it shows: a respected leader (Adrian Gonzalez), a gritty clutch hitter (Justin Turner),a great young shortstop (Corey Seager), a superb starting pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) and a lights-out closer (Kenley Jansen). That’s a lot. Whatever they get from Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson and Andrew Toles will be a bonus…The Giants are a nice veteran team but might need a big year from first baseman Brandon Belt to seriously challenge the Dodgers…The Rockies have a genuinely potent lineup – home and away – featuring Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackman, DJ LeMahieu and now Ian Desmond. The pitching is OK at best and that could be enough for a .500 season…Arizona has some good bats (including Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock) but not enough quality pitchers behind Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller…San Diego lost its NBA and NFL teams but still has the Padres. That’s cruel. Avoiding 100 losses is a reasonable goal.
RED SOX, NATIONALS AND CUBS UNANIMOUS IN THIS SURVEY
Here are the results of my annual survey of baseball magazines: Lindy’s Baseball, Sporting News, Athlon Sports, Draft Engine Baseball and Sports Illustrated. Five points for a first-place vote to one point for a fifth-place vote. The higher the total, the better:
AL East
Red Sox 5-5-5-5-5 = 25
Blue Jays 4-4-3-4-4 = 19
Orioles 2-3-4-2-1 = 12
Yankees 3-2-2-1-3 = 11
Rays 1-1-1-3-2 – 8
AL Central
Indians 5-5-5-4-5 = 24
Royals 4-4-3-5-3 = 19
Tigers 3-2-4-3-4 = 16
Twins 1-3-1-2-2 = 9
White Sox 2-1-2-1-1 = 7
AL West
Astros 5-5-5-4-5 = 24
Rangers 4-4-4-3-4 = 19
Mariners 3-3-3-5-3 = 14
Angels 1-2-2-2-2 = 9
Athletics 2-1-1-1-1 = 6
NL East
Nationals 5-5-5-5-5 = 25
Mets 4-4-4-4-4 = 20
Marlins 3-3-3-3-2 = 14
Braves 1-2-1-2-3 = 9
Phillies 2-1-2-1-1 = 7
NL Central
Cubs 5-5-5-5-5 =25
Cardinals 4-4-4-3-4 = 19
Pirates 3-3-3-4-3 = 16
Brewers 2-2-1-2-2 = 9
Reds 1-1-2-1-1 = 6
NL West
Dodgers 4-5-5-4-5 = 23
Giants 5-4-4-5-4 = 22
Rockies 3-3-3-2-3 = 14
Diamondbacks 2-2-2-3-2 = 11
Padres 1-1-1-1-1 = 5. I agree. San Diego is this lousy.
A BRIEF STUDY ON THE GAP BETWEEN THE NHL AND AHL
Derek Grant of the Rochester Americans exploded for six goals in three AHL games last weekend. The Amerks won them all.
Thus far, Grant has been an extreme example of how wide the gap between the NHL and the AHL can be.
In 305 career AHL games with Binghamton, Stockton and Rochester, the 26-year-old Grant has 75 goals.
In 86 NHL games with Ottawa, Calgary, Buffalo and Nashville, Grant has 0 goals (and 7 assists).
This doesn’t mean Grant can’t play in the NHL., where he thus far has seen limited ice time and seldom plays on top lines or on power plays.
Just for some nostalgic fun, here is how the top 15 scorers in Rochester Amerks history fared in the NHL:
1-Jody Gage 728 points (351 goals + 377 assists in 728 games with the Amerks) – 29 points (14 goals + 15 assists) in 68 NHL games with Detroit and Buffalo
2-Dick Gamble 565 points (300+265 in 560 games with the Amerks) – 82 points (41 goals + 41 assists) in 196 NHL games with Montreal, Chicago and Toronto
3-Bronco Horvath 542 points (199 goals + 343 assists in 473 games with the Amerks) – 326 points (141 goals + 185 assists) in 326 NHL games with New York Rangers, Montreal, Boston, Chicago, Toronto and Minnesota
4-Gerry Ehman 520 points (237 goals + 283 assists in 465 games with the Amerks) – 214 points (96 goals + 118 assists) in 429 NHL games with Boston, Detroit, Toronto and Oakland/California
5-Chris Taylor 481 points (142 goals + 339 assists in 519 games with the Amerks) – 32 points (11 goals + 21 assists) in 519 NHL games with New York Islanders, Boston and Buffalo
6-Stan Smrke 436 points (197 goals + 239 assists in 513 games with the Amerks) – 3 points (0 goals + 3 assists) in 9 NHL games with Montreal
7-Geordie Robertson 395 points (164 goals + 231 assists in 359 games with the Amerks) – 3 points (1 goal + 2 assists) in 5 NHL games with Buffalo.
8-Red Armstrong 391 points (166 goals + 225 assists in 566 games with the Amerks) – 2 points (1 goal + 1 assist) in 7 NHL games with Toronto
9-Scott Metcalfe 348 points (137 goals + 211 assists in 499 games with the Amerks) – 3 points (1 goal + 2 assists) in 19 NHL games with Edmonton and Buffalo
10-Bob Mongrain 339 points (153 goals + 186 assists in 322 games with the Amerks) – 27 points (13 goals + 14 cassists) in 81 NHL games with Buffalo and Los Angeles
11-Barry Merrell 321 points (134 goals + 187 assists in 322 games with the Amerks) – Never played in the NHL
12-Craig Charron 312 points (122 goals + 190 assists in 335 games with the Amerks) – Never played in the NHL
13-Ron Garwasiuk 308 points (130 goals + 178 assists in 342 games with the Amerks) – Never played in the NHL
14-Gordie Clark 303 points (123 goals + 180 assists in 270 games with the Amerks) – 1 point (0 goals + 1 assist) in 8 NHL games with Boston
15-Jimmy Jackson 298 points (93 goals + 205 assists in 360 games with the Amerks) – 47 points (17 goals + 30 assists) in 112 NHL games with Calgary and Buffalo.
THE SABRES AND THE POWER PLAY
The Buffalo Sabres have been eliminated from contention for a Stanley Cup playoff berth but they entered Thursday night leading the NHL in power-play percentage (25.3; 7-for-225).
A few factoids on NHL power-play production since Buffalo entered the NHL for the 1970-71 season:
The Sabres have led the NHL in power-play percentage only once: the 1991-92 season (22.53). Buffalo had a 31-37-12 record and lost in the first round of the playoffs 4-3 to Boston.
The Sabres have finished last in power-play percentage four times (1996-97, 1999-2000, 2005-06 and 2015-15).
The team leading the NHL in power-play percentage since the 1970-71 season has gone on to win the Stanley Cup five times (most recently the 1993-94 New York Rangers) and lost in the Stanley Cup Finals four times.
The best power-play percentage since 1970-71 was 31.88 by the 1977-78 Montreal Canadiens.
Buffalo’s best power-play percentage was 27.39 in 1974-75 (third-best in an 18-team NHL that season). The worst power-play percentage for the Sabres was 10.54 (37-for-351) in 1999-2000.
The 2006-07 Montreal Canadiens are the only team since 1970-71 to lead the NHL in power-play percentage (22.75) but fail to make the playoffs. Those Canadiens were 42-34-6 but failed to qualify for the postseason.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO…
Friday, March 31 – Josmil Pinto (28)…Chien-Ming Wang (37)…Pavel Bure (46)…Steve Smith NBA (48)…Tom Barrasso )52). Al Gore (69), Christopher Walken (74) and Shirley Jones (83) are invited to the birthday party.
Saturday, April 1 – Brook and Robin Lopez (29)…Daniel Murphy (32)…Randy Orton (37)…J.P. Dupont (39)…Mark Jackson (32)…Jumbo Elliott (52)…Scott Stevens (53)…John Wensink (64)…Rusty Staub (73).
Sunday, April 2 – Bill Romanowski (51)…Pete Incaviglia (53)…Larry Drew (59)…Ayako Okamoto (66)…Marlene Floyd (69)…Don Sutton (72)…Reggie Smith (72).