MLB PLAYOFF PROBABILITIES RANKED 1-TO-30…YANKEES AT 22 PERCENT
I respect baseball analysts who pour a lot of work into their projections for the upcoming season, and Joel Reuter of bleacher report.com did a nice job on his 2017 MLB Playoff Chances for Every Team Entering Spring Training.
Here they are from most-likely to make the postseason to least-likely:
Cubs 90 percent (won the N L Central by 17 ½ games last season)…Indians 89 percent (everybody seems to be touting the Indians; the addition of DH Edwin Encarnacion was huge; comeback by Michael Brantley from shoulder woes would be a bonus)…Red Sox 75 percent (so talented that they don’t figure to miss Big Papi’s bat in the middle of the lineup).
Nationals 71 percent (Reuter likes Washington’s chances more than the Mets, so I like Reuter)…Dodgers 61 percent (will battle improved San Francisco)…Giants 59 percent…Astros 55 percent (added Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Josh Reddick)…Mets 52 percent (young starting pitchers have been injury-prone; lineup still has holes)…Blue Jays 51 percent (underrated starting rotation)…Rangers 51 percent…Mariners 49 percent (they let me down last season)…Cardinals 47 percent (never count them out).
Detroit 35 percent (overrated in my book)…Rockies 28 percent (a terrific lineup in or out of Coors Field)…Marlins 27 percent…Pirates 27 percent (suspect rotation)…Diamondbacks 23 percent…Yankees 22 percent (.500 record is no lock)…Royals 22 percent…Orioles 22 percent (lots of HRs; too many whiffs; suspect rotation)…Angels 20 percent.
Rays 12 percent…Phillies 6 percent (no thanks)…Braves 6 percent (on the way back)…White Sox 2 percent…Athletics 2 percent…White Sox 2 percent…Twins 2 percent…Brewers 1 percent…Reds 1 percent…Padres 1 percent (a really bad team).
NBA TRADE DEADLINE DIDN’T CHANGE MUCH
The NBA trade deadline was Thursday and the biggest news was the stars who WERE NOT dealt – including Carmelo Anthony, Blake Griffin (the Celtics really wanted him), Jimmy Butler and Paul George.
Before Thursday, I thought a rematch of Cleveland vs. Golden States in the Finals was inevitable. Nothing has changed.
I liked moves by three teams:
Toronto added power forward Serge Ibaka.
Houston added sharp-shooting guard Lou Williams.
Oklahoma City added forward Taj Gibson and guard Doug McDermott.
The Raptors now appear to be the team most likely to lose to Cleveland in the East Conference finals. Houston and Oklahoma City will be tough outs in the West but aren’t likely to derail the Warriors.
Justin Bailey On Verge Of 20 Goals
Justin Bailey has 19 goals for the Rochester Americans this season and needs one more to become the first Rochester Americans player to record consecutive 20-goal seasons in almost a decade.
Bailey led Rochester with 20 goals in 70 games last season (the next-most was 13 goals by three players). He has 19 goals for the Amerks in 41 games this season.
The last Amerk to record back-to-back 20-goal seasons was Mark Mancari in 2006-07 (23 goals in 64 games) and 2007-08 (21 goals in 80 games). He returned to score 22 goals in 76 games in the 2012-13 season. He spent the last few hockey seasons in Europe.
The first Amerk to post back-to-back 20-goal seasons was Ed “Spider” Mazur in the team’s inaugural 1956-57 season (24 goals in 47 games) and again in 1957-58 (22 goals in 59 games).
In Amerks history, entering this season, a total of 52 players had 20 goals in at least two consecutive seasons. Jody Gage had eight straight seasons of at least 20 goals. Fellow Amerk Hall of Famers and Gerry Ehman and Dick Gamble each did it seven straight seasons.
Of course, most players don’t stick around the AHL as long as they used to and it isn’t as easy to score 20 goals in a season as it used to be – particularly for the Amerks. Guys with a scoring touch usually go up to Buffalo.
Here are Rochester’s 20-goal scorers since Mancari’s back-to-back 20-plus seasons:
2008-09 – Karl Stewart 20
2009-10 – Jeff Taffe 28…Jamie Johnson 27…Michael Repik 22…Graham Mink 20
2010-11 – Mike Duco 20
2011-12 – Derek Whitmore 28 (from Rocheste; has been playing in Germany and Austria)…Paul Szczechura 21 (now playing in Russia)
2012-13—Mark Mancari 22 (played the last two seasons in Germany, with 20 goals in 97 games)
2013-14 – Luke Adam 29
2014-15 – None…Zac Dalpe led the team with 16 goals (currently with AHL Iowa Wild)
2015-16 – Justin Bailey 20…next-most was 13 goals by three players.
MY THOUGHTS ON THE SYRACUSE ORANGE/IRONMEN
There have been quite a few better Syracuse U. men’s basketball teams than the current group in Jim Boeheim’s 41 years as head coach, but how many have been more fun to watch?
This team has been wildly inconsistent. On their best, they can beat some of the best big-time college teams in the nation – and they have. On other nights, they can lose badly to less-talented opponents.
Wednesday night’s thrilling 78-75 home victory over Duke before 30,000-plus fans was a classic. I expect the Blue Devils to make the Final Four. I’ll be surprised if SU wins more than one game in the NCAA Tournament – assuming they get in (and I expect that they will).
I believe Duke has at least five future NBA players, including two potential stars in Luke Kennard and Jayson Tatum.
Here are my mini-sketches for coach Jim Boeheim’s seven-man rotation:
John Gillion – Does he remind you of Sherman Douglas? About as fun to watch as a college player could be. Smallish in stature but a huge heart. Can carry SU on his good nights – and has. Fearless penetrator and a clutch shooter. Superb from the line. Not ideal for Boeheim’s 2-3 zone. Probably not a future NBA player due to lack of height and great quickness, but he figures to make a fortune and lots of friends overseas.
Tyler Lydon – I don’t care what anyone says. He has played every minute of the last 10 games and he looks tired. The sophomore has been projected as a first-round pick in the 2017 NBA draft. Can you see it? He has NBA size but I wonder if he has the hops and strength to hold his own in the pros. Not much of a jump shot. Can hit uncontested three-pointers. ESPN analyst Jay Bilas touted Lydon as a potential All-American if he returns for his junior year. I’d like to see Tyler prove me wrong.
Andrew White III – Where would SU be without graduate transfers White and Gillon? An excellent shooter but who knows if he can effectively drive to the basket and play enough man-to-man defense to stick in the NBA? He’ll wind up making lots of money somewhere.
Tyus Battle – The freshman has NBA potential. No way he stays at SU more than two seasons – unfortunately. Figures to average at least 20 ppg as a sophomore and become a 2018 lottery pick.
Taurean Thompson – This freshman has an impressive upside. Has improved a lot in the second half of the season as DeJuan Coleman’s replacement in the starting lineup.
Tyler Roberson – Works hard. Hasn’t improved much in four seasons. A hard-working rebounder and can run the floor but doesn’t do anything else particularly well. Takes more than his share of heat from Boeheim and his teammates probably respect and appreciate him for that.
Frank Howard – Not much of an offensive threat.OK on defense. Good playmaker. Figures to continue to be a decent No. 2 point guard.
SHORT SHOTS
Can spring be far away? Ravenwood Golf Club rolled greens Thursday and was scheduled tol be cutting Friday.
MLBPipeline.com makes infielder Nick Gordon the top prospect for the Minnesota Twins. Miguel Sano got the nod in 2012 and 2013, and Byron Buxton was the pick in 2014, 20-15 and 2016. Some Red Wings fans still bitter that Sano and Buxton saw so little playing time in Rochester.
Joe Walter is back home for a lacrosse shooting clinic Friday. Needless to say, the Knighthawks and the entire National Lacrosse League miss him. He’s great guy and a terrific ambassador for the sport. He’s taking tis NLL season off.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO…
Friday, February 24 – Chris Parmalee (29)…Lleyton Hewitt (36)…Floyd Mayweather Jr. (40)…Zach Johnson (41)…Simeon Rice (43)…Mike Lowell (43)…Manon Rheaume (45)…Terry Hollinger (46)…Jeff Garcia (47)…Eddie Murray (61)…Alain Prost (62)…Tom Burleson (65)…Phil Knight (79).
Saturday, February 25 – Jorge Soler (25)…Jimmer Fredette (28)…Joakim Noah (32)…Shannon Stewart (43)…Paul O’Neill (54)…Todd Blackledge (56)…Kurt Rambis (59)…Bob Brenly (63)…Ric Flair (68)…Dave Vineyard (76; he pitched no-hitters for and against the Rochester Red Wings). George Harrison was born on this date 74 years ago (1943) and died in of cancer in 2001 at age 58.
Sunday, February 26 – Steve Blake (37)…Marty Reasoner (40)…Josh Towers (40)…Mike Wilson (42)…Marshall Faulk (44)… J.T. Snow (49)…Kelly Gruber (55)…Rick Knickle (57)…Bingo Smith (71). Michael Bolton (64) and Fats Domino (89) are invited to the birthday party. Buffalo Bill Cody was born on this date 171 years ago (1846) and died in 1917 at age 70. His official residence was Rochester from 1873-77 (he owned a home, where his wife raised their kids and he visited between jobs on the road). Three of his four children, including 5 ½-year-old Kit Carson Cody, are buried at Mt. Hope Cemetery.