WHEN IN DOUBT, I’M GOING WITH BRADY AND BELICHICK
Many observers entering Super Bowl 51 on Sunday in Houston believe the 3-point underdog Atlanta Falcons have more overall talent than the New England Patriots. I agree.
I respect the Falcons – a lot. I’d pick them to beat any team in the AFC in Super Bowl 51 – except New England.
Atlanta has awesome firepower. They led the NFL in scoring (33.8 points per game) and were second in total offense (415.8 yards per game), behind only the pass-happy New Orleans Saints. Matt Ryan was the best quarterback in the league over the course of the entire season and he has an impressive array of running backs and receivers. Atlanta’s defense has improved as the season progressed.
But the Patriots have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady – the most successful head coach/quarterback combination in NFL history. I don’t know how much mileage they have left but I’m confident they’ll be great for at least one more game. New England enters Sunday with an NFL-best 16-2 record. Atlanta is 13-5.
New England has much more experience in big games and obviously know how to win. The Patriots led the NFL in scoring defense.
Who knows what defensive schemes Belichick has cooked up to frustrate the Falcons? On offense, my guess is that Belichick will try to take advantage of Atlanta’s suspect rush defense (allowed 104.5 yards rushing per game and a generous 4.5 yards per carry) with a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount – maybe 25-plus carries for 130-plus yards.
I won’t be shocked if Atlanta wins, but I think it is more likely that this will be a painful learning experience for the young Falcons.
My pick: New England 35, Atlanta 30.
FOXBORO, MA - NOVEMBER 13: Head coach Bill Belichick talks with Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots before a game against the Seattle Seahawks at Gillette Stadium on November 13, 2016 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
SUPER BOWL 51 TIDBITS
This will be the sixth Super Bowl since the 1970 merger with the team leading the NFL in scoring (Atlanta) faces the team leading the NFL in scoring defense (New England). The team leading in scoring defense is 4-1 so far.
The over/under (total points by both team in Las Vegas wagering) is 59. That’s the most in Super Bowl history. That’s interesting considering that New England led the NFL in scoring defense this season.
This will be the ninth Super Bowl appearance for New England (4-4 record), breaking a tie with Dallas, Denver and Pittsburgh.
Patriots QB Tom Brady will be trying to become the first four-time Super Bowl MVP.
The Patriots did not score in the first quarter in any of their six Super Bowls in the Belichick/Brady era.
New England is 15-0 this season when leading at halftime.
New England’s Bill Belichick/Tom Brady have an NFL-most 24 post-season victories. The second-most was 14 by Pittsburgh’s Chuck Noll/Terry Bradshaw).
Atlanta led the NFL in scoring for the first time in franchise history.
The Falcons allowed 25.4 points per game in the regular season, the second-most ever by a team reaching a Super Bowl. Atlanta allowed 27.6 points per game in its first 12 games this season – but only 19.3 points per game in its current six-game winning streak.
It would be a surprise if giveaways play a significant role in the outcome of Super Bowl 51. The Patriots and Falcons each had only 11 giveaways this regular season, tied for fewest in the NFL.
WNY PLAYOFF HOCKEY DROUGHT LIKELY TO CONTINUE
Remember when Buffalo Sabres owner Terry Pegula purchased the Rochester American? Who can forget the gala media conference in the atrium of Blue Cross Arena, when the subject was Sabres University and how committed everyone was to winning Stanley- and Calder Cups.
Well, that was the summer of 2011, and not only have the Sabres and Amerks not won cups, they’ve combined to win zero playoff series. Nada. As in the shape of a puck.
Late in the 2016-17 NHL and AHL seasons, Buffalo and Rochester are facing uphill battles to make the playoffs again. The Cup dreams continue to more resemble nightmares.
The Pegulas purchased the Sabres in January 2011. The team has failed to make the playoffs the past five seasons and it looks like this will be the sixth straight season. The problems began long before the Pegulas arrived. The Sabres last won a playoff series after the 2006-07 season.
The Amerks last won a playoff series after the 2004-05 season. They’ve lost all six playoff series since and have missed the playoffs 6 of the past 11 seasons. It looks like this will make it 7 of the last 12 seasons.
The Pegulas saved the Bills and maybe the Sabres, too. They have good intentions and want very much to deliver a Super Bowl and a hockey cup or two. But they’re finding out the hard way that making a fortune in the natural gas industry and owning other profitable businesses is no guarantee of success in pro sports.
WOMEN HUSKIES CLOSING IN ON 100 STRAIGHT WINS
The University of Connecticut women’s basketball Huskies crushed host Temple 97-69 Wednesday night to break their own NCAA record with a 35th consecutive road victory. The Huskies are 21-0 this season and have won 96 straight games.
Barring an improbable upset, the Huskies will win their 100th consecutive game Feb. 13 at home against South Carolina.
The Huskies are outscoring opponents by 31.4 points per game (86.1 to 54.7). They have a .521 field goal percentage; .412 3-point field-goal percentage and .775 free-throw percentage.
SHORT SHOTS
Public Policy Polling polled 378 NFL fans “representative of US population.” Some of the results: Most disliked team, the No. 1 Patriots edged the No. 2 Cowboys (19 percent)…Tom Brady was both “modt popular NFL QB (22 percent) and least popular NFL QB (24 percent).
There never has been an overtime game in the history of the Super Bowl. The odds on “No” for Super Bowl are bet $800 to win $100. I’d take the “No”.
According to ECKS and Bacon’s Super Bowl Spread Chart, the Las Vegas being favorite at kickoff time for the 50 Super Bowls were 26-22-1 against the point spread (Super Bowl XLIX was a pick-em game) and the “over” was 26-23 vs. the “under” (no line for Super Bowl I).
The Minnesota Twins signed veteran right-handed free-agent relief pitcher Matt Belisle. He’ll definitely make Minnesota’s bullpen and squeeze a quality arm down to the Red Wings.
From former Duke basketball player and current ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas: “The NCAA does not vacate losses. Jim Boeheim has coached 999 games in which the other team lost. Boeheim has handed his Syracuse University opponents 999 losses.” Using that logic – which I buy – Boeheim’s 1,000th victory at SU could be an upset over Virginia on Saturday afternoon.
Syracuse’s two graduate students – John Gillon and Andrew White – were quite a 1-2 punch in Wednesday night’s 100-93 overtime victory at North Carolina State. They combined to score 71 of SU’s 100 points. They made 21 of 32 field-goal attempts (including 12-for-20 from three-point range), 17 of 18 free throws and played a total of 89 of 90 possible minutes.
Rochester Knighthawks star Cody Jamieson will have season-ending surgery on his torn ACL. He used social media Thursday to thank his family, friends and Rochester teammates and fans for supporting him and vowed to return next season. The Knighthawks activated veteran Cory Vitarelli to take Cody’s roster spot.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO…
Friday, February 3 – Rougned Odor (23)…Julio Jones (28)…Lucas Duda (31)…Andrei Kostitsyn (32)…Keith Carney (47)…Vlade Divac (49)…Retief Goosen (58)…Tiger Williams (63)…Fred Lynn (65)…Bob Griese (72)…Carol Mann (76)…Fran Tarkenton (77).
Saturday, February 4 – Carly Patterson (29)…Doug Fister (33)…Oscar De La Hoya (44)…Denis Savard (56)…Steve Patrick (56)…Lawrence Taylor (58) Alice Cooper (69) is invited to the birthday party.
Sunday, February 5 – Neymar (25)…Terrence Ross (26)…Kelvin Benjamin (26)…Cristiano Ronaldo (32)…Roberto Alomar (49)…Jose Maria Olazabal (51)…Jane Geddes (57)…John Beilein (64)…Darrell Waltrip (70)…Craig Morton (74)…Roger Staubach (75)…Larry Hillman (80)…Hank Aaron (83)…Don Cherry (83).