This could be an historic year for Monroe County politics, as a Democrat sweep of major races seems increasingly likely.
With no public polls, and few hard data points to go off, the sense of people from both parties is nonetheless that the Democrats are poised for potential key victories.
Specifically, that Adam Bello may be elected county executive and that his Democratic Party could take the majority in the county legislature. Such an outcome would end an almost 30-year control of county politics by the Republican Party.
It would also mean a sea change in regard to county policy and patronage.
What makes this outcome seem possible?
The first and most obvious sign is enrollment. With 192,000 Monroe County Democrats, and 125,000 Republicans, the Democrats have a 42% to 27% enrollment advantage. That is a big deal. But it is a big deal that is sometimes diminished by the lesser likelihood of Democrats to come out and vote.
That likelihood is looking less likely this year, and early voting totals bear that out.
In the first weekend of early voting, in which 2,930 voters cast their ballot, Democrats outperformed their expected voting levels. Specifically, whereas Democrats are – as was just noted – 42% of the electorate, they were 57% of first-weekend voters. Republicans, by contrast, were 25% of voters – on 27% of registrants – while the county’s 25% of non-affiliated registrants were just 12% of first-weekend voters.
The high Democrat percentage is probably the result of enthusiasm. Certainly, some of that is enthusiasm for early voting itself, long a Democrat priority. But more likely Democrat turnout is being driven by an almost zealous enthusiasm. They hate Trump and they love their progressive agenda. It’s something between a perfect storm and a crusade, and it won’t leave many Democrats on the bench.
That head of steam combines with a lukewarm community estimation of incumbent Republican Cheryl DiNolfo. Most whisperings from both parties say that she has not been able to get to a 50% favorability rating with likely voters. That is potentially huge, as the tendency is for voters who are still undecided just before an election to break for the challenger.
As a Republican and DiNolfo supporter, I think she has done a great job, and I think many people are pleased with her work. But it is becoming increasingly obvious that she is in the fight of her political life, and comes into the last week of the campaign with “within the margin of error” as the most optimistic read on her chances.
So what does that mean for the rest of the ballot?
District Attorney Sandra Doorley came out of her last election as possibly the biggest vote getter in county history. But she has faced almost a million dollars’ worth of blistering outside influence as the target of a George Soros anti-law-and-order political action committee. Most people think she is apt to be re-elected, but human behavior may take her down.
It is human nature to vote a straight ticket, or to vote in blocks – like so many on one line, than switch and vote the rest on another line. On the Monroe County ballot, the order will be Supreme Court justices first, then county executive, then county court, then district attorney. If the majority of voters go to the Democrat line to vote for county executive, there is a great likelihood they will continue on that line right on through all the races.
That could lead to a very good day for Democrats.
It could also lead to a defeat for Sandra Doorley. It could also be very good news for Democrat county court prospects. Though, some believe that the relatively popular John DeMarco – a Republican candidate for county court – might bring some voters back to the GOP line and thereby spare Doorley.
Only time will tell.
But this much is certain: Monroe County is riding the tide of New York’s Democratic Party – increasingly progressive and increasingly powerful. Not just in the central city, but in the ring of ever-more Democrat suburbs, where even tony Pittsford looks to be contemplating a hard left turn.
Which may be good news for realtors outside Monroe County.