The worst thing that could happen to Joe Morelle is, he loses the primary.
The second-worst thing that could happen to Joe Morelle is, he wins the primary.
That’s the thinking of many Rochester political folks after the surprise announcement Friday that City Councilman Adam McFadden has decided to seek the Democratic nomination for Congress in the 25th District of New York.
Though there are other potential challengers, none has the on-the-ground organization of McFadden, which can help him collect enough nominating-petition signatures to get on the primary ballot. Nor do any of the others have McFadden’s experience in elected office.
So let’s presume he gets on the ballot.
Let’s presume there is a Democratic primary and that it includes Joe Morelle and Adam McFadden , and perhaps others.
The worst thing that could happen to Joe Morelle is, he loses the election.
How could that happen?
By energized McFadden supporters and lukewarm Morelle supporters.
McFadden is a black city resident in a county where black city residents are a large and decisive percentage of Monroe County Democratic voters. When turnout is good among black Rochester voters, it’s a good day for the Democratic Party. And in a Democratic primary, the candidate who captures the affections of black city voters has a good chance of capturing his party’s nomination.
McFadden will probably galvanize black voters, drawing people to the election who wouldn’t have been involved otherwise.
Morelle’s strength could be his weakness. He is an organization man who runs politics like a business. He’s smart, he’s organized and he gets things done. But that can create the impression he’s a cram down instead of a rise up. And in an activist party with a romantic view of the grassroots, and with a fond memory of a pioneering congresswoman, Morelle could look like the establishment his party is typically fighting against.
Morelle is not a “cause,” and Democrats do better when they’re fighting for a cause.
So his supporters might mail it in.
Or bleed off to a female or more-progressive candidate.
Creating a scenario in which Joe Morelle could lose.
But the likelier scenario is that he will win.
Which could be bad news for him.
Because winning the Democratic primary will require Joe Morelle to beat Adam McFadden, which means he will have thwarted the black city voters who he would need in the general election . If you turn down the enthusiasm of Rochester’s black voters, you endanger the prospects of the Democratic candidate.
Which means Joe Morelle would have to beat expected Republican candidate Jim Maxwell in the suburbs.
Which isn’t likely to happen.
Especially after the Republicans run about a gazillion ads showing pictures of Joe Morelle standing next to Sheldon Silver.
In summation: To run in November, Morelle has to win the primary. But winning the primary means he could lose in November.
I wonder who was in the meeting when that little trap was thought up.
The candidacy of Adam McFadden is a surprise – he had been quiet about his consideration, and had said a week earlier that family opposition had led him to opt out – but it is not a joke. He could be a formidable candidate. As he was considering running, his questions were about the general election, not the primary. He assumes he is going to win the primary.
He has run successful elections before, for himself and others.
Adam McFadden has also demonstrated over time the ability to grow and mature. He broke onto the political scene as something of a mess, making news by squabbling with a bar owner. But he’s shown over the years since a plain-spoken, honest air that wins people over – even people whose lives may not include a lot of big black guys with dreadlocks.
The McFadden announcement was big, and may ultimately help Jim Maxwell.
But it will undoubtedly hurt Joe Morelle.
The only questions are: How much and when?